Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20241021-AL-002
Issue Time: 2024-10-21T17:28Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-21T17:28:53Z
## Message ID: 20241021-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-21T05:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~703 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -117/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-21T05:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-10-22T18:00Z while the flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-23T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-21T05:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-21T16:51:47Z
## Message ID: 20241021-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-21T11:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~702 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -100/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-21T11:24:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-21T09:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~230 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-21T09:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Lucy (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2024-10-24T06:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-26T06:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-10-25T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-21T11:24:00-CME-001, 2024-10-21T09:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-19T19:31:21Z
## Message ID: 20241019-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-19T09:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1015 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -73/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-19T09:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe, Lucy (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-10-20T09:29Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-10-21T16:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-21T04:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-20T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-19T09:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.5 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-19T12:07:55Z
## Message ID: 20241019-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-19T06:48Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-19T06:56Z.
Flare intensity: M6.5 class.
Source region: S03W82 (Active Region 13854) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-19T06:59:47Z
## Message ID: 20241019-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-19T06:54Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-18T16:11:21Z
## Message ID: 20241018-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-10-18T15:55Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels may be caused by a short-lived coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2024-10-16, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 500 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 400 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-18T16:02:20Z
## Message ID: 20241018-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-10-18T15:55Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-17T18:42:09Z
## Message ID: 20241017-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-16T23:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~980 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -166/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-16T23:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-18T13:57Z and the flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-10-24T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-16T23:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241017_022100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for October 09, 2024 - October 15, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-16T21:47:52Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-10-09T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-10-15T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241016-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 2 X-class flares, 17 M-class flares, 7 O-type CMEs, and 13 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the leading edge of an O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-10-09T02:12Z associated with an X1.8 flare from Active Region 13848 (N13W08) which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001 and 20241009-AL-002) would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-10T14:55Z (plus minus 7 hours) with a possible Kp index of 8-9 (severe to extreme) (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009). The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 around 2024-10-10T14:46Z (see notification 20241010-AL-002) and at STEREO A around 2024-10-10T12:06Z. Continued analysis of the event indicates the possible presence of an additional O-type CME which was first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-10-09T02:23Z. Modeling shows the leading edge likely combined with the originally observed CME event and may additionally be associated with the solar energetic particle, interplanetary shock, geomagnetic storm, and modeled magnetopause crossing events currently associated with the originally observed CME event. Analysis of this possible additional CME event is ongoing.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-10-09T02:09Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-10T05:51Z.
2024-10-09T02:12Z Lucy at 2024-10-10T11:16Z, Mars at 2024-10-12T14:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-09T19:42Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-10T18:14Z, and Juno at 2024-10-22T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
2024-10-10T09:53Z Psyche at 2024-10-16T02:52Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-11T19:36Z (see notification 20241011-AL-003).
2024-10-13T01:36Z Psyche at 2024-10-18T07:21Z (see notification 20241013-AL-001).
2024-10-14T09:24Z Mars at 2024-10-18T05:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241014-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity reached severe levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=8.67 for the reporting period. The geomagnetic storm lasted from 2024-10-10T15:00Z to 2024-10-11T15:00Z, with Kp values ranging from 6.67 to 8.67 (see notifications 20241010-AL-005, 20241010-AL-006, 20241010-AL-007, 20241010-AL-008, 20241011-AL-001, and 20241011-AL-002). The highest value of Kp = 8.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T21:00Z to 2024-10-11T00:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-10-10T14:46Z which was likely associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-10-09T02:12Z (see notification 20241010-AL-002). This arrival was also detected by the STEREO A IMPACT instrument around 2024-10-10T12:06Z. On 2024-10-10, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-10-10T17:13Z (see notifications 20241010-AL-003 and 20241010-AL-004).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated towards the beginning of the reporting period, but remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by GOES, SOHO, and STEREO A during the reporting period. At GOES, the integral flux of the > 100 MeV protons exceeded 1 pfu starting at 2024-10-09T03:50Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-004 and 20241009-AL-006) and the integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2024-10-09T05:05Z (see notification 20241009-AL-003). At SOHO, the fluxes of the 15.8-39.8 MeV and 28.2-50.1 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-10-09T06:01Z. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-10-09T08:55Z (see notification 20241009-AL-005). This solar energetic particle event was associated with the O-type halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-10-09T02:12Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009). The enhanced particle environment at GOES, SOHO, and STEREO A began to subside towards background levels on 2024-10-11.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been high this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle events detected at GOES, SOHO, and STEREO A and geomagnetic activity described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-10-09T02:12Z ~1509 O 8/13 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-09T02:23Z ~1348 O 32/18 41 STEREO A, SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-10-09T02:09Z ~1054 O -64/5 14 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-10-09T16:12Z ~1109 O 113/16 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-10T09:53Z ~1323 O -163/-11 45 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-10-10T18:12Z ~694 C NONE(POS)/20 18 SOHO
2024-10-11T12:24Z ~808 C 95/22 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-11T13:09Z ~691 C 169/-57 12 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-10-12T11:23Z ~662 C 175/-63 31 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-10-12T11:36Z ~536 C 99/-28 36 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-13T01:36Z ~1184 O 156/1 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-13T02:48Z ~1001 O 155/-45 21 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-10-13T17:36Z ~535 C NONE(POS)/-65 17 SOHO
2024-10-14T00:48Z ~577 C 78/37 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-14T09:24Z ~829 C 71/-19 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-14T14:36Z ~741 C 88/37 30 SOHO
2024-10-14T17:36Z ~717 C 79/28 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-14T20:36Z ~510 C 78/36 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-15T00:36Z ~746 C 174/-50 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-15T11:09Z ~576 C NONE(POS)/28 14 STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-10-16T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-10-22T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently nine numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Most notably, Active Regions 13852 (S10W48) and 13854 (S05W44) produced multiple M-class flares during the reporting period and will likely continue to exhibit notable flaring activity before rotating off of the Earth-facing disk on or around 2024-10-19 and 2024-10-20, respectively. Additionally, formerly numbered Active Regions 13842 (around latitude S13) and 13848 (latitude N15) each produced an X-class flare and several M-class flares during the reporting period before rotating off the Earth-facing disk on 2024-10-09 and 2024-10-14, respectively, and may continue to be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole in the northwestern portion of the Earth-facing disk which crossed central meridian on 2024-10-14 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-10-16.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-14T17:10:48Z
## Message ID: 20241014-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-14T09:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~829 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 71/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-14T09:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2024-10-18T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-14T09:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241014_132200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241014_132200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241014_132200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241014_132200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241014_132200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241014_132200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-13T16:39:46Z
## Message ID: 20241013-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-13T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1184 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 156/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-13T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-10-18T07:21Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-13T01:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241013_035700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241013_035700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241013_035700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241013_035700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241013_035700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241013_035700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-11T13:06:48Z
## Message ID: 20241011-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-10T09:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~1323 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -163/-11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T09:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-10-16T02:52Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-11T19:36Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-10T09:53:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241010_115700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-11T00:36:38Z
## Message ID: 20241011-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T21:00Z to 2024-10-11T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241010-AL-002) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This Geomagnetic Storm (2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001) is associated with the Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2024-10-10T17:13:00-MPC-001 (see notifications 20241010-AL-003, 20241010-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-11T00:34:58Z
## Message ID: 20241011-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T21:00Z to 2024-10-11T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241010-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T21:41:56Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8.33 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T18:00Z to 2024-10-10T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241010-AL-002) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This Geomagnetic Storm (2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001) is associated with the Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2024-10-10T17:13:00-MPC-001 (see notifications 20241010-AL-003, 20241010-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T21:32:55Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8.33 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T18:00Z to 2024-10-10T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241010-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T18:50:30Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T15:00Z to 2024-10-10T18:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241010-AL-002) and the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T15:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2024-10-10T17:13:00-MPC-001 (see notifications 20241010-AL-003, 20241010-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T18:32:50Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-10-10T15:00Z to 2024-10-10T18:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T16:56:30Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-10-10T17:13Z.
The activity is associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241010-AL-002) and with the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T17:13:00-MPC-001.
## Notes
One point initially crossed threshold at 2024-10-10T16:41Z before a rebound just barely above 6.6 Earth Radii, but the automatic entry was made and is left at 2024-10-10T17:13Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T16:34:49Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-10-10T17:13Z.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T15:09:44Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-10-10T14:46Z.
The shock is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm expected.
Activity ID: 2024-10-10T14:46:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
The shock resulted in further enhancement of the ongoing SEP event. The >10 MeV proton flux at GOES reached values of 1368 pfu at 2024-10-10T14:50Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-10T00:23:37Z
## Message ID: 20241010-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-09T23:09Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.7 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T23:39:42Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-09T22:59Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-09T23:12Z.
Flare intensity: M7.7 class.
Source region: S16W90 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for October 02, 2024 - October 08, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T23:11:15Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-10-02T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-10-08T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241009-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 3 X-class flares, 38 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 22 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-10-03T12:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-10-06T04:39Z Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notification 20241003-AL-004).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-10-06T06:55Z.
2024-10-03T20:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-10-07T07:00Z, Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20241004-AL-001, 20241004-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 around 2024-10-07T22:12Z (see notification 20241007-AL-006).
2024-10-04T04:13Z NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T19:18Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20241004-AL-002).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-10-07T22:12Z (see notification 20241007-AL-006).
2024-10-08T06:12Z NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-11T04:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20241008-AL-006).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-10-01T23:09Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-03T00:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-04T16:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241002-AL-002, 20241002-AL-003).
2024-10-03T08:24Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-04T06:53Z, Lucy at 2024-10-06T12:00Z (glancing blow).
2024-10-03T12:48Z Lucy at 2024-10-06T03:54Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-05T22:13Z, Mars at 2024-10-07T10:00Z (glancing blow), and Juno at 2024-10-17T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241003-AL-004).
2024-10-03T13:27Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-04T07:02Z, Lucy at 2024-10-06T07:44Z (see notification 20241003-AL-007).
2024-10-03T20:36Z Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2024-10-16T13:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241004-AL-001, 20241004-AL-002).
2024-10-03T23:12Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-04T20:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-10-04T04:13Z Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2024-10-16T13:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241004-AL-001, 20241004-AL-002).
2024-10-07T03:48Z Mars at 2024-10-12T19:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-10-07T20:12Z Juno at 2024-10-27T18:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2024-10-12T22:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-10-11T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20241008-AL-001, 20241008-AL-007).
2024-10-08T02:12Z Mars at 2024-10-12T22:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-10-11T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241008-AL-007).
2024-10-08T06:12Z Juno at 2024-10-24T06:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2024-10-12T12:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-10-10T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241008-AL-006).
2024-10-08T12:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-10T14:05Z (see notification 20241008-AL-008)
Geomagnetic activity was at strong levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=7.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 7.33 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-10-08T03:00Z-06:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shocks detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-10-06T06:55Z and 2024-10-07T22:12Z which were likely associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-10-03T12:48Z (see notification 20241003-AL-004) and the arrivals of the C-type CMEs first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-10-03T20:36Z and 2024-10-04T04:13Z, respectively.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES increased above background levels near 2024-10-07T23:00Z in response to the X2.1 and X1.0 flares from Active Region 13842 peaking at 2024-10-07T19:13Z and 2024-10-07T20:59Z respectively (see notifications 20241007-AL-003, 20241007-AL-004, 20241007-AL-005) and the associated C-type CME first detected in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-10-07T20:12Z (see notification 20241008-AL-001). The >10 MeV protons detected at GOES returned to near-background levels by the end of the reporting period. The 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A also increased above background levels near 2024-10-07T23:00Z and remained elevated but below threshold through the end of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the increase in solar energetic particles detected at GOES and STEREO A and the enhanced geomagnetic activity described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-10-03T12:48Z ~822 C 3/-20 39 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-03T20:36Z ~646 C 51/1 45 SOHO
2024-10-04T04:13Z ~832 C 22/-19 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-08T06:12Z ~1124 O 32/-50 45 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-10-03T08:24Z ~573 C -70/41 36 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-03T09:48Z ~599 C 7/-39 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-03T13:27Z ~706 C -62/26 36 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-03T22:12Z ~606 C -41/50 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-03T23:12Z ~531 C -80/28 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-04T05:12Z ~564 C 15/-59 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-04T10:00Z ~543 C 22/-39 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-04T13:25Z ~921 C 37/-33 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-04T20:48Z ~827 C -173/41 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-05T07:12Z ~669 C 76/-56 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-05T12:00Z ~675 C NONE(POS)/-60 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-05T13:48Z ~614 C NONE(POS)/-67 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-05T19:24Z ~525 C NONE(POS)/46 28 SOHO
2024-10-06T04:48Z ~641 C 80/-62 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-06T05:48Z ~775 C 105/-51 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-06T21:48Z ~817 C NONE(POS)/27 17 SOHO
2024-10-07T03:48Z ~529 C 71/28 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-07T20:12Z ~757 C 89/-32 46 SOHO
2024-10-08T12:12Z ~537 C -129/-12 34 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-10-09T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-10-15T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently 5 numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Most notably, Active Regions 13842 (S13W86) and 13848 (N12W22) have already produced X-class flares during the outlook period and will likely be the source of additional flaring activity. Additionally, Active Regions 13844 (S15W96) and 13849 (S07E02) produced M-class flares during the reporting period and may exhibit similar behavior during the outlook period. Active Region 13842 (S13W86) is expected to rotate off the disk on 2024-10-10, and together with AR 13844 (S15W96) may be the source of far-sided activity after having rotated off the Earth-facing disk during the outlook period. A new but unnumbered Active Region is located around N20E50 and may cross the central meridian around 2024-10-12.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between strong and severe levels during the outlook period due to the anticipated arrival of the O-type halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-10-09T02:12Z associated with the X1.8 flare from Active Region 13848 (N13W08) peaking at 2024-10-09T01:56Z as well as the arrival of a O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-10-08T06:12Z which may become overtaken by the 2024-10-09T02:12Z CME (see notifications 20241008-AL-006, 20241009-AL-007, 20241009-AL-008, 20241009-AL-009). A polar coronal hole structure currently expected to cross the central meridian on 2024-10-09 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-10-11.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T16:09:03Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-09T15:45Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-09T15:47Z.
Flare intensity: X1.4 class.
Source region: S11W85 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T15:50:10Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-09T15:45Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T14:48:17Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20241009-AL-007 and 20241009-AL-008). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-22T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-10T11:16Z, Mars at 2024-10-12T14:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-09T19:42Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-10T18:14Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-10T14:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).
CME parameters are (O-type):
Start time of the event: 2024-10-09T02:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1509 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 8/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.8 flare from Active Region 3848 (N13W08) with ID 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001, 20241009-AL-002) and with the SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-004, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T05:05:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-003, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-001 and with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-002 (notification 20241009-AL-006), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-10-09T08:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-005, 20241009-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T13:20:54Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241009-AL-007). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-10T11:16Z, Mars at 2024-10-12T14:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-09T19:42Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-10T18:14Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-10T14:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).
Parameters of this O-type CME (not updated) are:
Start time of the event: 2024-10-09T02:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1509 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 8/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.8 flare from Active Region 3848 (N13W08) with ID 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001, 20241009-AL-002) and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-004, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T05:05:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-003, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-001 and with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-002 (see notification 20241009-AL-006), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-10-09T08:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-005, 20241009-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T12:47:17Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-09T02:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1509 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 8/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA missions near Earth will likely be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.8 flare from Active Region 3848 (N13W08) with ID 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001, 20241009-AL-002).
This event is also associated with the SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-004, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T05:05:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-003, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-001 and ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-002 (20241009-AL-006), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-10-09T08:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-005, 20241009-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP update (GOES, SOHO, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T11:56:35Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO (at L1), STEREO A and GOES (near Earth environment). At GOES, the flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeded 1 pfu starting at 2024-10-09T03:50Z and the flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2024-10-09T05:05Z.
At SOHO, the flux of both of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-10-09T06:01Z.
At STEREO A, the flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-10-09T08:55Z.
NASA Spacecraft between the Sun-Earth line and STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001) is associated with X1.8 flare from Active Region 13848 (N13W08) with ID 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001, 20241009-AL-002) and the CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 which is under analysis. Updates will be provided soon.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T09:05:35Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-10-09T08:55Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T06:15:34Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeds 1 pfu starting at 2024-10-09T03:50Z.
NASA Spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T05:13:10Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2024-10-09T05:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T02:15:33Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-09T01:25Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-09T01:56Z.
Flare intensity: X1.8 class.
Source region: N13W08 (Active Region 13848) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001.
## Notes:
Simultaneous flaring from an unnumbered region near N21E62.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T01:50:00Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-09T01:43Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T21:07:35Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-08T12:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~537 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -129/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-08T12:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-10T14:05Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-08T12:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T18:58:00Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001, now simulated with CMEs with ID 2024-10-08T02:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-10-08T02:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241008-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Mars (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs may reach Mars at 2024-10-12T22:00Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-11T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-07T20:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~757 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 89/-32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-08T02:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~638 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 82/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-08T02:12:00-CME-001
3: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-08T02:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~499 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 56/-39 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-08T02:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001, 2024-10-08T02:12:00-CME-001, and 2024-10-08T02:36:00-CME-001):
The CME event (2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X2.1 flare with ID 2024-10-07T19:02:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13842 (S16W61) which peaked at 2024-10-07T19:13Z (see notifications 20241007-AL-003 and 20241007-AL-004) and X1.0 flare with ID 2024-10-07T19:31:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13842 (S16W60) which peaked at 2024-10-07T20:59Z (see notification 20241007-AL-005).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T15:57:48Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-08T06:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1124 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 32/-50 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-08T06:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2024-10-24T06:00Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-10T23:43Z, and Mars at 2024-10-12T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-11T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-08T06:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T12:21:54Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index had reached level 7.33 (strong) during the synoptic period 2024-10-08T03:00Z to 2024-10-08T06:00Z.
The storm may be caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-06T06:55:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241006-AL-001) associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241003-AL-004), and/or the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-07T22:12:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241007-AL-006) associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241004-AL-001 and 20241004-AL-002) and/or 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241004-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T12:19:44Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index had reached level 6.67 (strong) during the synoptic period 2024-10-08T00:00Z to 2024-10-08T03:00Z.
The storm may be caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-06T06:55:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241006-AL-001) associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241003-AL-004), and/or the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-07T22:12:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241007-AL-006) associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241004-AL-001 and 20241004-AL-002) and/or 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241004-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T06:34:56Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.33 (strong) during the synoptic period 2024-10-08T03:00Z to 2024-10-08T06:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241003-AL-004).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-07T12:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-06T06:55:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241006-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T03:34:54Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.67 (strong) during the synoptic period 2024-10-08T00:00Z to 2024-10-08T03:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241003-AL-004).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-10-07T12:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-06T06:55:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241006-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-08T00:22:11Z
## Message ID: 20241008-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-07T20:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~757 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 89/-32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact) and Mars (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME may reach Juno at 2024-10-27T18:00Z and Mars at 2024-10-12T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241008_011700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001) is indirectly associated with X2.1 flare from AR 13842 (S16W60) with ID 2024-10-07T19:02:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-07T19:13Z (see notifications 20241007-AL-003, 20241007-AL-004) and X1.0 flare from AR 13842 (S16W60) with ID 2024-10-07T19:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-07T20:59Z (see notification 20241007-AL-005).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-07T23:08:29Z
## Message ID: 20241007-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-10-07T22:12Z.
The shock may be caused by CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241004-AL-001, 20241004-AL-002) and/or CME with ID 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241004-AL-002). Some magnetospheric compression and continued minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-07T21:11:32Z
## Message ID: 20241007-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-07T19:31Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-07T20:59Z.
Flare intensity: X1.0 class.
Source region: S16W60 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-10-07T19:31:00-FLR-001.
## Notes: Following the X2.1-class flare from AR3842 (S16W60) peaking at 2024-10-07T19:13Z (see notification 20241007-AL-003, 20241007-AL-004), x-ray flux briefly subsided to M7-levels before gradually rising again in association with continued flare activity and energetic enhancement in the magnetic field structure high above Active Region 3842 as seen best in SDO 131 imagery.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X2.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-07T19:20:24Z
## Message ID: 20241007-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-07T19:02Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-07T19:13Z.
Flare intensity: X2.1 class.
Source region: S16W61 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-07T19:10:44Z
## Message ID: 20241007-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-07T19:07Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-07T15:42:17Z
## Message ID: 20241007-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-10-07T12:00Z to 2024-10-07T15:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-10-06T06:55:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241006-AL-001) and the arrival of CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241003-AL-004).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-07T15:34:49Z
## Message ID: 20241007-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2024-10-07T12:00Z to 2024-10-07T15:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-06T12:42:37Z
## Message ID: 20241006-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-10-06T06:55Z.
The shock is caused by CME with ID 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241003-AL-004). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm conditions are possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth, Dawn)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T23:06:57Z
## Message ID: 20241004-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241004-AL-001) now simulated with the CME with ID 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001.
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the two CMEs may affect Dawn (glancing blow), Mars, STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, while the flank of the 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 will reach Dawn at 2024-10-16T13:00Z and the flank of the 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. The combined front of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T19:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters are:
1: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-03T20:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-04T04:13Z.
Estimated speed: ~832 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 22/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001, 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
The CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T00:32:20Z
## Message ID: 20241004-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T20:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T17:04Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T12:02Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-07T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T22:20:44Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T13:27Z.
Estimated speed: ~706 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -62/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T13:27:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-06T07:44Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-04T07:02Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T13:27:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.7 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T20:36:40Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-03T20:09Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-03T20:23Z.
Flare intensity: M6.7 class.
Source region: S10W47 (Active Region 13843) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T20:27:44Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-03T20:23Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Lucy, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T17:08:34Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T12:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~822 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 3/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Lucy, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-06T03:54Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-05T22:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-17T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-10-07T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T03:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001) is associated with X9.0 flare from Active Region 3842 (S15W05) with ID 2024-10-03T12:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T12:18Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-001, 20241003-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T13:17:36Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002).
Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 42 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-10-04T08:14Z and 2024-10-04T20:50Z (average arrival 2024-10-04T14:42Z) for 50% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-10-04T12:25Z and 2024-10-05T07:13Z (average arrival 2024-10-04T21:10Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is an 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) at 2024-10-03T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241002-AL-002).
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13942 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-10-02_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071/Detailed_results_20241001_230900_ncmes1_sims42_LAHAINA071.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X9.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T12:31:54Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-03T12:08Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-03T12:18Z.
Flare intensity: X9.0 class.
Source region: S15W05 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T12:19:58Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-03T12:15Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for September 25, 2024 - October 01, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-02T20:35:20Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-25T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-10-01T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241002-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate to high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 8 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 7 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the leading edge of a C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-10-01T23:09Z associated with an X7.1 flare from Active Region 13842 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004) will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-04T20:40Z (plus minus 7 hours) with a possible Kp index of 4-6 (below minor to moderate) (see notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002). An ensemble simulation for this event is currently in progress.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-27T09:24Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-28T08:06Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-29T17:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240927-AL-001).
2024-09-29T06:00Z Mars at 2024-10-02T20:44Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-01T05:00Z (minor impact), Juno at 2024-10-14T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20240929-AL-002).
2024-09-29T08:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T06:19Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T04:07Z (see notification 20240929-AL-001).
2024-09-30T03:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T19:03Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T20:56Z (see notification 20240930-AL-001).
2024-09-30T05:36Z Mars at 2024-10-03T14:32Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-02T13:30Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2024-10-15T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241001-AL-002)
2024-09-30T07:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T19:40Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T21:16Z.
2024-09-30T16:12Z Mars at 2024-10-03T14:32Z, STEREO A at 2024-10-02T13:30Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2024-10-15T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241001-AL-002).
2024-10-01T23:09Z Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-03T00:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-10-04T16:30Z (glancing blow) (see notfication 20241002-AL-002)
Geomagnetic activity reached minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp=5.00 occurred during the synoptic period of 2024-09-25T03:00Z to 2024-09-25T06:00Z and was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24 in the previous reporting period, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 550 km/s.
During the beginning of the reporting period, the >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt briefly crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-26T15:05Z (see notifications 20240926-AL-001 and 20240926-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the previously mentioned coronal hole high speed stream arrival detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24. The energetic electron flux levels subsided towards background levels on 2024-09-27 and remained at or slightly above background levels during the remainder of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES, the >15.8 MeV protons at SOHO/ACE, and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
2024-10-01T23:09Z ~594 C -19/-10 38 STEREO A, SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-27T09:24Z ~515 C -88/-12 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-29T06:00Z ~1148 O 46/-14 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-29T08:36Z ~503 C -119/15 39 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T03:12Z ~637 C -131/9 40 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T07:12Z ~556 C -107/8 17 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T14:12Z ~589 C -44/-53 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-30T16:12Z ~1066 O 56/-16 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-10-01T01:25Z ~566 C 69/-25 11 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-10-02T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-10-08T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently 10 numbered Active Regions on the Earth facing disk. Most notably, Active Region 13842 (S15E09) produced 4 M-class flares as well as an X7.1 flare during the reporting period and may continue to produce notable flares throughout the outlook period. Additionally, Active Regions 13843 (S08W20) and 13839 (S14W03) also produced M-class flares during this reporting period and may exhibit similar behavior during the outlook period. Two newly numbered Active Regions, 13841 (N13W06) and 13848 (N14E77), have produced M-class flares during the outlook period and may be the source for additional notable flaring.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. A below minor to moderate enhancement in geomagnetic activity may be observed on or around 2024-10-04 due to the anticipated arrival of a C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-10-01T23:09Z (see notifications 20241002-AL-001 and 20241002-AL-002).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-02T13:17:33Z
## Message ID: 20241002-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241002-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-10-04T19:43Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-03T00:00Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-04T16:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-04T20:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded to C-type):
Start time of the event: 2024-10-01T23:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~594 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -19/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13942 (S17E18) which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003 and 20241001-AL-004).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-02T02:15:47Z
## Message ID: 20241002-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-10-01T23:09Z.
Estimated speed: ~487 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -17/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-05T01:14Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-04T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-05T03:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001) is associated with X7.1 flare with ID 2024-10-01T21:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-01T22:20Z (see notifications 20241001-AL-003, 20241001-AL-004). This CME is still in progress and arrival times are based on preliminary data. Updates will be provided when available.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X7.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T22:33:08Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-10-01T21:58Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-10-01T22:20Z.
Flare intensity: X7.1 class.
Source region: S17W18 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T22:15:45Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-10-01T22:11Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Juno, Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T01:20:50Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-30T16:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1066 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 56/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-30T16:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact), Mars, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juno at 2024-10-15T00:00Z, Mars at 2024-10-03T14:32Z, and the flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2024-10-02T13:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-09-30T05:36:00-CME-001, 2024-09-30T16:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-01T00:16:18Z
## Message ID: 20241001-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-09-30T23:37Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-09-30T23:59Z.
Flare intensity: M7.6 class.
Source region: S18E30 (Active Region 13842) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-30T23:57:30Z
## Message ID: 20240930-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-09-30T23:53Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-30T15:04:33Z
## Message ID: 20240930-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-30T03:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~637 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -131/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-30T03:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T19:03Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T20:56Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-30T03:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240930_084200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Mars, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-29T16:11:15Z
## Message ID: 20240929-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-29T06:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1148 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 46/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-29T06:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact), Mars, and STEREO A (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-14T00:00Z, Mars at 2024-10-02T20:44Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-01T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-29T06:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240929_084200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240929_084200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240929_084200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-09-29T06:00:00-CME-001) may be associated with C5.0 flare near the vicinity of Active Region 13834 (S25W35) with ID 2024-09-29T05:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-29T06:11Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-29T13:34:56Z
## Message ID: 20240929-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-29T08:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~503 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -119/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-29T08:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX and Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-10-01T06:19Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-30T04:07Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-29T08:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-27T12:31:15Z
## Message ID: 20240927-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-27T09:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~515 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -88/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-27T09:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-09-28T08:06Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-09-29T17:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-27T09:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-26T15:25:39Z
## Message ID: 20240926-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-26T15:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2024-09-24, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 550 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR is currently around 380 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-26T15:13:35Z
## Message ID: 20240926-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-09-26T15:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for September 18, 2024 - September 24, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-25T19:48:24Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-18T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-09-24T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20240925-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was between low and moderate levels during this reporting period with 2 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 10 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-22T21:36Z associated with the M3.7 flare peaking at 2024-09-22T21:39Z from Active Region 13835 (S23E65) would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) with possible Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notifications 20240922-AL-001 and 20240922-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-09-18T12:36Z Lucy at 2024-09-21T10:00Z (minor impact).
2024-09-22T21:36Z Lucy at 2024-09-25T10:00Z (minor impact) and STEREO A at 2024-09-26T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20240922-AL-002).
Geomagnetic activity reached minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.67 for the reporting period. The first value of Kp=4.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-09-19T00:00Z-03:00Z. The second value of Kp=4.67 occurred during the synoptic period of 2024-09-24T21:00Z to 2024-09-25T00:00Z and was associated with the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 550 km/s.
The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-19T16:50Z (see notifications 20240919-AL-001, 20240919-AL-002, 20240921-AL-001, and 20240923-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-09-14T15:36Z detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-09-16T22:49Z during the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux levels subsided to background levels on 2024-09-24.
The energetic proton fluxes at GOES and SOHO remained elevated at the beginning of the reporting period due to a prior solar energetic particle event first detected in the previous reporting period at GOES around 2024-09-17T07:35Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-002 and 20240917-AL-003) and at SOHO around 2024-09-17T04:40Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-004 and 20240917-AL-006). The particle environment at GOES was enhanced but below threshold at the beginning of the reporting period, and decreased to background levels on 2024-09-19. The enhanced particle environment at SOHO decreased below threshold towards background levels on 2024-09-18.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the persistent effects of solar energetic particle events observed at GOES and SOHO and the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2024-09-22 21:12:00 22:05:00 21:39:00 M3.7 S23E65 ( 13835 )
2024-09-23 14:23:00 15:34:00 14:56:00 M1.3 S12E90 ( 13836 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-22T21:36Z ~1239 O -25/-41 37 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-09-18T05:48Z ~812 C 153/-45 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-18T06:24Z ~620 C -160/-61 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-18T12:36Z ~640 C -59/-45 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-18T22:12Z ~851 C 131/26 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-19T22:00Z ~531 C NONE(POS)/41 10 SOHO
2024-09-21T11:12Z ~651 C 99/29 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-09-21T20:00Z ~561 C 80/55 10 SOHO
2024-09-22T19:12Z ~537 C 95/35 15 SOHO
2024-09-23T02:00Z ~512 C NONE(POS)/36 15 SOHO
2024-09-24T04:12Z ~577 C -22/-53 20 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-09-25T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-10-01T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor to moderate levels in the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13835 (S22E27) and 13836 (S10E48) each produced 1 M-class flare and multiple C-class flares during the reporting period, and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period due to the anticipated arrival of the O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-22T21:36Z associated with the M3.7 flare from Active Region 13835 (S23E65) peaking at 2024-09-22T21:39Z. There is a slight chance for minor enhancement in the geomagnetic activity on or around 2024-09-28 due to the possible arrival of the S-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-09-23T20:48Z. Geomagnetic activity reached minor levels with Kp=5.00 during the synoptic period 2024-09-25T03:00Z-06:00Z. This increase in geomagnetic activity is associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR/ACE at L1 on 2024-09-24 mentioned previously in the summary above. A coronal hole currently observed to be crossing the central meridian near S05W00 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-09-29.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-23T17:31:44Z
## Message ID: 20240923-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-09-23T16:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2024-09-19T16:50Z (see notifications 20240919-AL-001, 20240919-AL-002, and 20240921-AL-001) are caused by the arrival of CME with ID 2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20240914-AL-006, 20240914-AL-007, and 20240915-AL-002). The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-09-16T22:49Z (see notification 20240916-AL-001). Geomagnetic Kp index reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2024-09-17T00:00Z to 2024-09-17T03:00Z (see notifications 20240917-AL-001 and 20240917-AL-005).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-23T20:18:45Z
## Message ID: 20240923-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO/STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-22T21:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1239 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -25/-41 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (minor impact), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-09-25T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-09-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-09-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.7 flare from AR 13835 (S23E65) with ID 2024-09-22T21:12:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-09-22T21:39Z.
Due to an ongoing outage, this event is not currently available in the Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-09-22T01:25Z
## Message ID: 20240922-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-09-22T21:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1239 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -25/-41 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA missions near Earth, Lucy and Parker Solar Probe can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001
## Notes:
Due to an ongoing outage, this event is not currently available in the Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
