Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20260402-AL-002
Issue Time: 2026-04-02T03:51Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Europa Clipper, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-02T03:51:56Z
## Message ID: 20260402-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260402-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy and Europa Clipper. The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2026-04-13T05:18Z and Europa Clipper at 2026-04-06T11:17Z.
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A and Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-04-03T02:03Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-04T08:01Z, STEREO A at 2026-04-04T02:03Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2026-04-06T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the southern flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-04-04T02:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2026-04-01T23:45Z.
Estimated speed: ~938 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260402_024900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001) is associated with C6.1 flare from Active Region 14403 (N20W23) with ID 2026-04-01T23:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-04-01T23:28Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-02T03:07:46Z
## Message ID: 20260402-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by GOES.
Start time of the event: 2026-04-01T23:45Z.
Estimated speed: ~938 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, and Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-04-03T02:03Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-04T08:01Z, STEREO A at 2026-04-04T02:03Z, and Juice at 2026-04-06T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the southern flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-04-04T02:49Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-04-01T23:45:00-CME-001) is associated with a C6.1 flare from Active Region 14403 (N20W23) with ID 2026-04-01T23:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-04-01T23:28Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for March 25, 2026 - March 31, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-01T23:26:38Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-03-25T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-03-31T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260401-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 2 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 16 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-03-30T03:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-03-31T15:07Z, Kp index 6-8 (moderate to severe)
(see notifications see notifications 20260330-AL-003, 20260330-AL-004, 20260330-AL-005, 20260330-AL-006, 20260330-AL-008).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-30_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078/Detailed_results_20260330_032400_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078.txt
The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 around 2026-04-01T11:29Z.
2026-03-31T01:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-04-02T18:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notification 20260331-AL-001).
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-03-25T00:45Z BepiColombo at 2026-03-25T17:26Z, STEREO A at 2026-03-26T17:30Z, Juice at 2026-03-28T12:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-03-29T12:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-03-27T20:00Z (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe at 2026-03-26T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260325-AL-001).
2026-03-27T01:26Z Juno at 2026-04-11T12:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260327-AL-001).
2026-03-27T08:24Z Juno at 2026-04-11T12:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260327-AL-001).
2026-03-30T03:24Z Lucy at 2026-04-10T12:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2026-04-12T06:00Z (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-02T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260330-AL-003, 20260330-AL-004, 20260330-AL-005, 20260330-AL-006, 20260330-AL-008).
2026-03-31T01:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-03T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260331-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2026-03-25T06:00Z to 2026-03-25T09:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-03-25T05:53Z which was associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-03-22T16:23Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing from the previous reporting period starting at 2026-03-22T14:15Z (see notifications 20260322-AL-003, 20260324-AL-001, 20260326-AL-001, 20260328-AL-002, and 20260330-AL-007). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-03-20T01:31Z which was associated with the combined arrival of S-type CMEs first seen in in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-03-17T05:08Z, 2026-03-17T06:38Z, 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and 2026-03-17T10:53Z, the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-03-20T20:17Z which was associated with the arrival of C-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-03-18T09:23Z, and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2026-03-21. Additional enhancements may have been associated with the coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2026-03-29. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-03-30T03:24Z ~1689 O -43/-22 46 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-31T01:48Z ~569 C 15/19 16 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-03-25T00:45Z ~1208 O 68/-19 23 GOES, SOHO
2026-03-26T19:15Z ~732 C -112/-14 21 GOES, SOHO
2026-03-27T01:26Z ~719 C -92/-29 35 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-27T08:24Z ~609 C -80/-22 29 SOHO, GOES
2026-03-27T19:36Z ~823 C NONE(POS)/-29 22 SOHO, GOES
2026-03-28T03:48Z ~823 C -76/-28 40 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-28T07:48Z ~691 C -65/-49 20 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-28T12:23Z ~926 C -56/22 12 STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-28T23:48Z ~511 C -28/16 10 SOHO
2026-03-29T05:12Z ~515 C -68/-37 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-29T11:12Z ~505 C -66/-31 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-30T10:53Z ~1180 O -51/-34 15 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-30T17:23Z ~563 C -57/-10 11 STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-30T17:38Z ~676 C -40/-18 10 STEREO A, GOES
2026-03-30T20:30Z ~687 C -35/-9 13 GOES
2026-03-30T21:15Z ~768 C -55/-9 10 GOES
2026-03-30T21:30Z ~942 C -35/-20 16 GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-04-01T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-04-07T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently nine numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14405 (S27E08) produced one M-class flare and one X-class flare during the reporting period and may produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole (as seen in available EUV imagery from SDO/AIA 195) centered around S10W15 may become geoeffective on or around 2026-04-02.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-01T16:08:12Z
## Message ID: 20260401-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-04-01T13:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-03-31T14:20Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2026-03-29, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 490 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 430 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-03-31T14:20:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
Previously elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-03-22T14:15Z (see notifications 20260322-AL-003, 20260324-AL-001, 20260326-AL-001, 20260328-AL-002, and 20260330-AL-007) were likely caused by the combined arrival of the CMEs with IDs 2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001, 2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001, 2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001, and 2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260320-AL-001), as well as the arrival of CME with ID 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260318-AL-002, 20260318-AL-003, and 20260320-AL-004), and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-03-21.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-01T11:40:28Z
## Message ID: 20260401-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2026-04-01T11:29Z.
The shock is likely caused by CME with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260330-AL-003, 20260330-AL-004, 20260330-AL-005, 20260330-AL-006, 20260330-AL-008). Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-01T08:12:12Z
## Message ID: 20260401-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260401-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2026-04-07T09:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-04T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-04-03T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2026-04-01T00:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~525 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 12/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-04-01T05:32:23Z
## Message ID: 20260401-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-04-01T00:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~525 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 12/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-04T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-04-03T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-31T14:01:29Z
## Message ID: 20260331-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-03-31T01:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~569 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 15/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-03-31T01:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-03T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-04-02T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-31T01:48:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-03-31T01:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C1.5 flare with ID 2026-03-31T00:55:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14403 (N16E00) which peaked at 2026-03-31T01:01Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T21:35:30Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260330-AL-006). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 26 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (92%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-03-31T09:56Z and 2026-03-31T22:27Z (average arrival 2026-03-31T16:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 64% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
## Notes:
The CME event with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-02T07:00Z, Lucy at 2026-04-10T12:00Z and Juno at 2026-04-12T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20260330-AL-003, 20260330-AL-004, 20260330-AL-005 and 20260330-AL-006).
This CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-03-30_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078/Detailed_results_20260330_032400_ncmes1_sims26_M2M-SWAO078.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T16:34:58Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-03-30T14:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-03-22T14:15Z (see notifications 20260322-AL-003, 20260324-AL-001, 20260326-AL-001, 20260328-AL-002) are likely caused by the combined arrival of the CMEs with IDs 2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001, 2026-03-17T06:38:00-CME-001, 2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001, and ID 2026-03-17T10:53:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260320-AL-001), as well as the arrival of CME with ID 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260318-AL-002, 20260318-AL-003, and 20260320-AL-004), and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-03-21, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 700km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 450km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2026-03-22T14:15:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
The arrival of the CME with ID 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001 was associated with geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-03-20T18:00:00-GST-001 and modeled magnetopause crossing with ID 2026-03-20T21:13:00-MPC-001.
The arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2026-03-21 was associated with a strong geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-03-22T09:00:00-GST-001.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T15:46:00Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20260330-AL-005 and 20260330-AL-004). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (glancing blow) and Juno (minor impact). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2026-04-10T12:00Z and its leading edge will reach Juno at 2026-04-12T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and NASA missions near Earth. The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-02T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-31T15:04Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
CME parameters are (not changed) O-type:
Start time of the event: 2026-03-30T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1689 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -43/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (OSIRIS-APEX, Juno, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T13:23:00Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260330-AL-004). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Juno (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-02T07:00Z and Juno at 2026-04-12T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-31T15:07Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Updated CME parameters are (O-type):
Start time of the event: 2026-03-30T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1689 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -43/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260330_051900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T04:45:21Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-03-30T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1845 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -27/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-04-01T12:00Z and STEREO A at 2026-04-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-31T10:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-9 (strong to extreme).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T04:13:40Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2026-03-30T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1845 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -27/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft near Earth can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) with ID 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-30T03:19Z (see notifications 20260330-AL-001, 20260330-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T03:46:43Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2026-03-30T02:47Z.
Flare peak time: 2026-03-30T03:19Z.
Flare intensity: X1.4 class.
Source region: S27E45 (Active Region 14405) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2026-03-30T02:47:00-FLR-001.
## Notes:
This flare is associated with the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-03-29T03:24Z. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-30T03:07:12Z
## Message ID: 20260330-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2026-03-30T03:03Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
