Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250118-AL-003
Issue Time: 2025-01-18T21:51Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-18T21:51:41Z
## Message ID: 20250118-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250118-AL-001 & 20250118-AL-002).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that one or both of the CMEs may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow) (see note). The flank of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z will reach Juice at 2025-01-19T16:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T02:00Z will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-22T00:30Z, Lucy at 2025-01-21T11:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-22T15:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined flank of both CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2025-01-20T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T02:00Z may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-20T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~915 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 27/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~530 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 14/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001, 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with the M1.7 flare from Active Region 13964 (N06W34) with ID 2025-01-18T00:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-18T00:58Z.
Based on previous simulations (see notifications 20250118-AL-001 and 20250118-AL-002) the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z is solely expected to have an impact at Juice. The CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T02:00Z is solely expected to have an impact at missions near Earth, Europa Clipper, Lucy, and Mars. Both CMEs are expected to have an impact at STEREO A.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-18T21:34:06Z
## Message ID: 20250118-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~530 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 14/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-22T02:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-21T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-01-22T16:00Z, and STEREO A at 2025-01-20T15:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-20T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-18T21:33:50Z
## Message ID: 20250118-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~915 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 27/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-01-19T16:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-20T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.7 flare from Active Region 13964 (N06W34) with ID 2025-01-18T00:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-18T00:58Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T21:06:13Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-17T16:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~741 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 7/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME might have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-20T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T20:01:04Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-17T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~700 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -169/-28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-17T15:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-19T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-17T15:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T13:56:41Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-17T13:24Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-17T13:35Z.
Flare intensity: M7.4 class.
Source region: N07W30 (Active Region 13964) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T13:39:14Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-17T13:34Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 08, 2025 - January 14, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-15T19:16:38Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-08T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-01-14T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250115-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during this reporting period with 1 M-class flare and 7 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-08T01:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T05:10Z and Psyche at 2025-01-16T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250108-AL-002).
2025-01-08T05:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T08:41Z (see notification 20250108-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.00 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period and subsided to near background levels by 2025-01-09 (see notifications 20250105-AL-002, 20250105-AL-003, and 20250107-AL-004). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream detected at DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-01-04 during the previous reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low to moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-01-09 00:18:00 00:33:00 00:26:00 M1.1 N15W09 ( 13947 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-08T01:36Z ~650 C 112/-10 13 SOHO
2025-01-08T05:36Z ~648 C 121/-12 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-11T09:09Z ~931 C 78/62 21 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-01-11T23:00Z ~504 C NONE(POS)/-20 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-13T05:24Z ~627 C 83/34 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-14T02:24Z ~817 C 95/28 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-14T09:12Z ~731 C 95/32 16 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-15T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-01-21T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently five numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13959 (N18E38) and 13961 (S09E61) have been the source of recent C-class flaring and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole structure, currently spanning longitudes W30 to E30, started crossing the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk on 2025-01-13 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA). This coronal hole structure may be geoeffective throughout the outlook period. Additionally, the energetic electron flux levels at GOES may be elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the influence of a high speed stream associated with this observed coronal hole structure.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 01, 2025 - January 07, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T22:35:01Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-01T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-01-07T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250108-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 3 X-class flares, 20 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 6 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-04T15:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-07T05:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001)
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-01-07T04:00Z.
2025-01-04T18:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-07T05:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250104-AL-010, 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001)
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-01-07T04:00Z.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-02T15:12Z STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250103-AL-001).
2025-01-02T15:24Z STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250103-AL-001).
2025-01-02T19:21Z STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250103-AL-001).
2025-01-04T05:48Z Psyche at 2025-01-12T04:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T09:10Z, and Juice at 2025-01-06T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250104-AL-009).
2025-01-04T15:12Z Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (glancing blow), and Psyche at 2025-01-11T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001).
2025-01-04T18:48Z Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (glancing blow), and Psyche at 2025-01-11T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250104-AL-010, 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001).
2025-01-06T05:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-08T16:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250107-AL-003).
2025-01-07T23:12Z Psyche at 2025-01-14T13:06Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-08T17:19Z, Juice at 2025-01-09T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250108-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at severe levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 8.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 8.00 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T15:00Z-18:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE around 2024-12-31T15:44Z (see notification 20241231-AL-001). This interplanetary shock and subsequent arrival signature are associated with the arrival of one or more of the C-type CMEs first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-29T01:23Z and 2024-12-29T06:24Z. Additionally, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-01T05:45Z (see notifications 20250101-AL-001 and 20250101-AL-004).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-01-05T19:50Z (see notifications 20250105-AL-002, 20250105-AL-003, 20250107-AL-004). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2025-01-04, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 650 km/s. The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period on 2025-01-07, surpassing the threshold of 1000 pfu each day.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-05T01:03Z (see notification 20250105-AL-001). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-01-04T22:15Z (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-04T22:23Z (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015). This SEP event was possibly associated with the combined effects of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-01-04T15:12Z and associated C9.3 flare from Active Region 13939 as well as the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-01-04T18:48Z and associated C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939. The integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO subsided below their thresholds on 2025-01-05 and continued to decline towards background levels through the remainder of the reporting period. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons subsided below its threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV on 2025-01-06.
An additional solar energetic particle event was detected at STEREO A. The flux of the 13-100 MeV protons briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-07T00:42Z (see notifications 20250107-AL-001, 20250107-AL-002). This solar energetic particle event is associated with an observed interplanetary shock detected by IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments at STEREO A at 2025-01-07T00:46Z. Analysis of this interplanetary shock is ongoing. The energetic electron flux levels at STEREO A quickly subsided towards background levels early on 2025-01-07 and remained there through the end of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle events and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-04T15:12Z ~892 C 56/-10 33 SOHO
2025-01-04T18:48Z ~1590 O 58/-18 36 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-01T02:48Z ~611 C 82/26 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-02T15:12Z ~637 C 30/-3 10 SOHO
2025-01-02T15:24Z ~750 C 30/-14 15 SOHO
2025-01-03T15:36Z ~584 C -26/-23 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-04T05:48Z ~681 C 116/15 40 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-06T05:48Z ~1184 O -20/12 10 SOHO
2025-01-07T23:12Z ~1219 O 99/-12 31 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-08T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-01-14T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered active regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13947 (N12W08) was the source of numerous flares during the reporting period, including three X-class flares, and may continue to exhibit similar flaring activity during the outlook period. Active Region 13939 rotated off the Earth-facing disk on 2025-01-07 and was responsible for a partially-occulted long-duration M1.1 flare at the end of the reporting period. This region may continue to exhibit notable flaring and may be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between below minor and minor levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N00W60 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI) may become geoeffective early in the outlook period, on or around 2025-01-08. Additionally, the > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu on 2025-01-08 and may continue to be elevated through the beginning part of the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T17:38:57Z
## Message ID: 20250108-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-08T05:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~648 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 121/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-08T05:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T08:41Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-08T05:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T14:50:16Z
## Message ID: 20250108-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-08T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~650 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 112/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-08T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and BepiColombo. The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-01-16T04:00Z and the leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T05:10Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-08T01:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T03:11:28Z
## Message ID: 20250108-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-07T23:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1219 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 99/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-07T23:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche, BepiColombo, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-01-14T13:06Z and BepiColombo at 2025-01-08T17:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-01-09T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-07T23:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-07T23:12:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.1 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W99) which peaked at 2025-01-07T23:05Z with ID 2025-01-07T22:35:00-FLR-001.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T20:51:50Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-01-07T12:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-01-05T19:50Z are likely caused by high speed stream which arrived on 2025-01-04 reaching sustained maximum speeds of approximately 650 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 500 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T13:28:17Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-06T05:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1184 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -20/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-06T05:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-08T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-06T05:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T01:52:11Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-07T00:42Z.
NASA spacecraft near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-07T00:42:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-01-07T00:42:00-SEP-001) may be associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-01-07T00:46:00-IPS-001, which itself is still ongoing and under analysis.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T00:51:08Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-07T00:42Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-06T01:09:44Z
## Message ID: 20250106-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250104-AL-016). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Psyche (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Psyche at 2025-01-11T12:00Z.
Previous simulations also estimate that the CMEs may affect Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z. The combined flank of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z and Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-07T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are (C-type):
1: Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~892 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 56/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T18:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1590 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 58/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001, 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.3 flare from Active Region 3947 (S17W55) with ID 2025-01-04T14:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T15:08Z.
This CME event (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C7.6 flare from Active Region 3947 (S17W57) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z, SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-011), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015), SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-05T01:03:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250105-AL-001), and SEP at MODEL with ID 2025-01-05T02:35:00-SEP-001.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-05T20:02:58Z
## Message ID: 20250105-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-01-05T19:50Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2025-01-04, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 700 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 by DSCOVR/ACE is currently around 580 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-05T19:56:43Z
## Message ID: 20250105-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-01-05T19:50Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-05T02:03:26Z
## Message ID: 20250105-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >28.2 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-05T01:03Z.
Earlier solar energetic particle events detected by SOHO in the >15.8 channel (see notification 20250104-AL-011), GOES (see notification 20250104-AL-012 and 20250104-AL-013) and STEREO Ahead (see notification 20250104-AL-014 and 20250104-AL-015).
NASA spacecraft near L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-05T01:03:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-01-05T01:03:00-SEP-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z and CME with ID 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-010 and 20250104-AL-016).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T23:10:06Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-016
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~892 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 56/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001
2: O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T18:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1590 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 58/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z and the flank will reach STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-07T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001, 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001):
The CME event (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001) is associated with long-duration C9.3 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T14:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T15:08Z.
The CME event (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z, SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-011), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T22:51:55Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-015
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-04T22:23Z.
Earlier solar energetic particle events detected by GOES (see notification 20250104-AL-012 and 20250104-AL-013) and SOHO (see notification 20250104-AL-011).
NASA spacecraft at the orbits near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare from the vicinity of Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z and CME with ID 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-010).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T22:43:17Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-014
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-04T22:23Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T22:38:07Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-013
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of >10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-01-04T22:15Z.
Earlier solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO (see notification 20250104-AL-011).
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z and CME with ID 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-010).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T22:27:19Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-01-04T22:15Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T22:13:22Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-04T21:46Z.
NASA spacecraft near L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001) is associated with long-duration C7.6 flare and eruption from Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z and CME with ID 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-010).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions near Earth, STEREO A, Juice, Lucy, Mars, and OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T21:58:49Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T18:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1590 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 58/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft and missions near Earth, STEREO A, Juice, Lucy, Mars, and OSIRIS-APEX can be affected. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001) is associated with long duration C7.6 flare from near the vicinity of Active Region 13939 (S17W58) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T20:14:20Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T05:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~681 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 116/15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T05:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact), BepiColombo, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-01-12T04:00Z and BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T09:10Z. The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-01-06T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-04T05:48:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_110100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T16:29:07Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-01-03T23:33Z.
The shock may be associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream and/or CME with ID 2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001. Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm may be expected. This arrival signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T16:20:15Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-04T05:19Z.
The activity is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-01-03T23:33:00-IPS-001.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T13:22:22Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-04T12:34Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-04T12:48Z.
Flare intensity: X1.8 class.
Source region: N12E50 (Active Region 13947) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T13:17:31Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-04T04:58Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-04T05:18Z.
Flare intensity: M7.6 class.
Source region: N12E54 (Active Region 13947) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T12:49:13Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-04T12:44Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T05:21:06Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-04T05:15Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T04:35:22Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-04T05:19Z.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.8 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-04T00:17:58Z
## Message ID: 20250104-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-03T23:50Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-03T23:56Z.
Flare intensity: M5.8 class.
Source region: N11E58 (Active Region 13947) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-03T23:59:02Z
## Message ID: 20250103-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-03T23:54Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-03T23:05:12Z
## Message ID: 20250103-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-03T22:32Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-03T22:41Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: N11E60 (Active Region 13947) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-03T22:45:00Z
## Message ID: 20250103-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-03T22:39Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.2 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-03T12:13:19Z
## Message ID: 20250103-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-03T11:29Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-03T11:39Z.
Flare intensity: X1.2 class.
Source region: N10E64 (Active Region 13947) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-03T11:42:49Z
## Message ID: 20250103-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-03T11:36Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Juice, Lucy, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-03T02:17:39Z
## Message ID: 20250103-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-02T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~637 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-02T15:12:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-02T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~750 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-02T15:24:00-CME-001
3: S-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-02T19:21Z.
Estimated speed: ~454 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 12 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 30/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-02T19:21:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO A, Juice (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs may reach STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-02T15:12:00-CME-001, 2025-01-02T15:24:00-CME-001, and 2025-01-02T19:21:00-CME-001):
The CME event 2025-01-02T19:21:00-CME-001 is associated with an M1.1 flare from Active Region 13939 (S11W29) with ID 2025-01-02T17:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-02T17:40Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 25, 2024 - December 31, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T20:50:19Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-25T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-12-31T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250101-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 3 X-class flares, 48 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 30 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-12-25T04:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-27T21:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20241225-AL-002)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2024-12-26T19:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-30T13:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-3 (below minor)
(see notification 20241227-AL-005)
The arrival of this CME at L1 is currently under investigation.
2024-12-29T01:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-31T17:06Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20241229-AL-008)
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-12-31T15:44Z. Analysis of this arrival signature is ongoing.
2024-12-29T06:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-31T13:14Z, Kp index 6-8 (moderate to severe)
(see notifications 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001)
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/Detailed_results_20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078.txt
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-12-31T15:44Z. Analysis of this arrival signature is ongoing.
2024-12-29T18:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-31T22:30Z, Kp index 6-8 (moderate to severe)
(see notification 20241229-AL-009)
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2024-12-31T15:44Z. Analysis of this arrival signature is ongoing.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-12-25T04:48Z Europa Clipper at 2024-12-28T20:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2024-12-26T17:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2024-12-27T22:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2024-12-29T04:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T20:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-28T06:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-12-27T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241225-AL-002)
2024-12-25T08:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241225-AL-003)
2024-12-25T10:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241225-AL-004)
2024-12-26T04:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241226-AL-005)
2024-12-26T05:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T15:58Z (see notification 20241226-AL-004)
2024-12-26T19:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T13:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-30T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241227-AL-001)
2024-12-26T19:12Z Europa Clipper at 2024-12-31T20:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2024-12-31T00:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-30T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241227-AL-005).
2024-12-27T01:25Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T07:01Z (see notification 20241227-AL-003).
2024-12-27T04:39Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T07:01Z (see notification 20241227-AL-003).
2024-12-27T06:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-30T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241227-AL-004).
2024-12-27T21:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-01T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241228-AL-001).
2024-12-27T22:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-01T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241228-AL-001).
2024-12-28T09:12Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-29T12:00Z (minor impact).
2024-12-28T18:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241229-AL-003).
2024-12-29T01:23Z Lucy at 2025-01-01T00:59Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T15:47Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T20:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-03T02:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-01-01T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241229-AL-008).
2024-12-29T06:24Z Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T11:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-31T20:21Z, Mars at 2025-01-02T15:17Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T09:22Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-01T01:22Z, Juice at 2024-12-31T05:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001).
2024-12-29T11:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-02T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241229-AL-007).
2024-12-29T18:24Z Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T21:02Z, Lucy at 2025-01-01T05:27Z, Mars at 2025-01-03T00:27Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T19:58Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-01T11:07Z, Juice at 2024-12-31T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241229-AL-009).
2024-12-30T05:24Z Juice at 2025-01-01T10:21Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-02T15:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241230-AL-005).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 4.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 4.33 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-12-31T15:00Z-18:00Z. This slight enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE around 2024-12-31T15:44Z (see notification 20241231-AL-001). This interplanetary shock and subsequent arrival signature are associated with the arrival of one or more of the C-type CMEs first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-29T01:23Z, 2024-12-29T06:24Z, and 2024-12-29T18:24Z. The arrival signature continues into the next reporting period and analysis of this event is ongoing.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated near, but below, the threshold level of 1000 pfu in the first half of the reporting period, and remained below threshold for the entire reporting period. This elevation of energetic electron flux levels began in the previous reporting period on 2024-12-23. The energetic electron flux levels subsided to background levels on 2024-12-30.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at or near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low to moderate this reporting period due to the slightly elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-25T04:48Z ~876 C -2/-31 30 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-26T19:12Z ~663 C -35/39 27 SOHO
2024-12-29T01:23Z ~881 C -1/-18 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-29T06:24Z ~860 C -20/-21 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-29T18:24Z ~917 C -5/-13 32 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-25T08:12Z ~792 C -157/-36 34 SOHO
2024-12-25T10:36Z ~771 C -143/-14 21 SOHO
2024-12-25T16:36Z ~600 C NONE(POS)/-38 21 SOHO
2024-12-26T01:25Z ~508 C -32/63 27 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-26T04:12Z ~757 C -152/-26 37 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-26T05:36Z ~849 C -128/-8 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-26T17:48Z ~833 C -75/5 14 SOHO
2024-12-26T19:00Z ~1240 O -73/4 26 SOHO
2024-12-27T01:25Z ~859 C -129/-18 39 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-27T04:39Z ~985 C -124/-26 38 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-27T06:36Z ~811 C -78/-1 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-27T07:36Z ~510 C -149/-40 27 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-27T21:12Z ~610 C -116/-26 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-27T22:12Z ~513 C -114/-19 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-28T02:48Z ~727 C 95/-51 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-28T09:12Z ~720 C 65/6 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-28T18:00Z ~550 C NONE(POS)/40 19 SOHO
2024-12-28T18:36Z ~812 C -35/-16 15 SOHO
2024-12-28T22:23Z ~835 C NONE(POS)/4 19 STEREO A
2024-12-29T11:36Z ~729 C -90/-26 15 SOHO
2024-12-29T14:24Z ~732 C NONE(POS)/-28 10 SOHO
2024-12-29T18:12Z ~511 C 24/48 21 SOHO
2024-12-30T05:24Z ~539 C 41/17 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-31T13:37Z ~712 C 76/30 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-31T14:12Z ~521 C -56/-32 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-31T16:48Z ~609 C NONE(POS)/29 13 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-01T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-01-07T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently 9 numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13936 (N13W80) was the source of the majority of the M-class flares and two X-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity during the outlook period as it rotates over the west limb around 2025-01-02. Active Region 13932 (S15W87) was the source of an X-class flare and multiple M-class flares during the reporting period, and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity during the outlook period as it rotates over the west limb around 2025-01-01. Active Region 13939 (S17W17) was the source of several M-class flares and may continue to exhibit flaring activity during the outlook period. Active Region 13938 (N19W39) was the source of several M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit flaring activity during the outlook period as it approaches the west limb around 2024-01-06.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between minor and severe levels during the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity reached severe levels with Kp = 8.00 during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T15:00Z-18:00Z (see notifications 20250101-AL-002, 20250101-AL-003, 20250101-AL-005, 20250101-AL-006, 20250101-AL-007, and 20250101-AL-008). Additionally, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-01T05:45Z (see notifications 20250101-AL-001 and 20250101-AL-004). This increase in geomagnetic activity and modeled magnetopause crossing was associated with an interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE around 2024-12-31T15:44Z (see notification 20241231-AL-001) during this reporting period described above. Analysis of this event is ongoing. Additionally, two large coronal holes currently centered around S31E04 and N13E10 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI) may become geoeffective around 2025-01-03 and 2025-01-04, as their westernmost edges crossed the central meridian on 2024-12-31 and 2025-01-01, respectively.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T18:42:31Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8 (severe) during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T15:00Z to 2025-01-01T18:00Z.
This storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241231-AL-001) and the arrivals of CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001) and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-01T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-01-01T05:45:00-MPC-001 (see notifications 20250101-AL-001, 20250101-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T18:35:08Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 8 (severe) during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T15:00Z to 2025-01-01T18:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001) and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241229-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-01T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241231-AL-001) and Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-01-01T05:45:00-MPC-001 (see notification(s) 20250101-AL-001, 20250101-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T15:37:43Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.67 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T12:00Z to 2025-01-01T15:00Z.
This storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241231-AL-001) and the arrivals of CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001) and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-01T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241231-AL-001) and Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-01-01T05:45:00-MPC-001 (see notification(s) 20250101-AL-001, 20250101-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T15:35:06Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.67 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T12:00Z to 2025-01-01T15:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001) and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20241229-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-01T09:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20241231-AL-001) and Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-01-01T05:45:00-MPC-001 (see notification(s) 20250101-AL-001, 20250101-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T13:50:39Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-01T05:45Z.
The activity is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241231-AL-001) and with the arrivals of CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001), and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T13:09:59Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T09:00Z to 2025-01-01T12:00Z.
This storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-31T15:44:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241231-AL-001) and the arrivals of CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241229-AL-006, 20241230-AL-001) and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-009).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T12:35:04Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T09:00Z to 2025-01-01T12:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-01T05:08:41Z
## Message ID: 20250101-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-01T05:45Z.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-31T16:19:04Z
## Message ID: 20241231-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2024-12-31T15:44Z.
The shock is likely caused by the arrival of one or more of: CME with ID 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-008), CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241229-AL-006 and 20241230-AL-001), and CME with ID 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241229-AL-009). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T17:13:49Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-30T16:45Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-30T16:54Z.
Flare intensity: M5.0 class.
Source region: N13W50 (Active Region 13936) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T16:59:30Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-30T16:54Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T13:58:39Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-30T05:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~539 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 41/17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-30T05:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-01-01T10:21Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-02T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-30T05:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-12-30T05:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.5 flare from Active Region 3936 (N13W46) with ID 2024-12-30T04:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-30T04:14Z (see notification 20241230-AL-002, 20241230-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T12:07:24Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-30T04:29Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-30T04:31Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: S17W53 (Active Region 13932) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-12-30T04:29:00-FLR-001.
## Notes:
This flare from Active Region 13932 occurred during the waning phase of the preceding X class flare from Active Region 13936 with Activity ID 2024-12-30T04:01:00-FLR-001.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.5 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T12:01:47Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-30T04:01Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-30T04:14Z.
Flare intensity: X1.5 class.
Source region: N13W46 (Active Region 13936) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T04:19:19Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-30T04:10Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Mars, missions near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-30T00:09:41Z
## Message ID: 20241230-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241229-AL-006).
### Notification information (STEREO A, Mars, missions near Earth)
Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-12-31T21:01Z and 2025-01-01T06:41Z (average arrival 2025-01-01T01:24Z) for 40% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2025-01-02T11:09Z and 2025-01-03T09:35Z (average arrival 2025-01-02T18:36Z) for 68% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-12-31T09:31Z and 2025-01-01T01:00Z (average arrival 2024-12-31T15:07Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 72% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an M2.0 flare from Active Region 13939 (S15E30) with ID 2024-12-29T04:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-29T04:30Z.
This CME event is also predicted to impact Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T11:36Z, Lucy at 2024-12-31T20:17Z, Mars at 2025-01-02T15:08Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T09:15Z, Juice at 2024-12-31T05:00Z, and Juno at 2025-01-13T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241229-AL-006).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078/Detailed_results_20241229_062400_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA078.txt
###
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T22:22:38Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-29T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~917 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -5/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T21:02Z, Lucy at 2025-01-01T05:27Z, Mars at 2025-01-03T00:27Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T19:58Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-01T11:07Z, and Juice at 2024-12-31T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-31T22:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001):
## Notes: This WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation is likely to overestimate geomagnetic impacts at Earth given that the measurement represents the faint shock associated with the CME, which does not contain much observed material behind the leading edge.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T20:37:06Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-29T01:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~881 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -1/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2025-01-01T00:59Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T15:47Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T20:00Z, Mars at 2025-01-03T02:00Z, and STEREO A at 2025-01-01T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-31T17:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T19:45:32Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-29T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~729 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -90/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-29T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T11:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Juice, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T16:29:37Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-29T06:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~860 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -20/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-01T11:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-31T20:21Z, Mars at 2025-01-02T15:17Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T09:22Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-01T01:22Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-01-13T18:00Z and Juice at 2024-12-31T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-31T13:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_101400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an M2.0 flare from Active Region 13939 (S15E30) with ID 2024-12-29T04:18:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-29T04:30Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T15:36:00Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-29T15:02Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-29T15:09Z.
Flare intensity: M7.1 class.
Source region: N13W39 (Active Region 13936) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T15:13:08Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-29T15:08Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T14:54:11Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-28T18:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~812 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -35/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-28T18:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-31T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-28T18:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T13:06:25Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-29T07:08Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-29T07:18Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: N13W35 (Active Region 13936) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-29T07:21:01Z
## Message ID: 20241229-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-29T07:14Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-28T03:03:09Z
## Message ID: 20241228-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-27T21:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~610 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 12 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -116/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-27T21:12:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-27T22:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~513 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -114/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-27T22:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-01T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-27T21:12:00-CME-001, 2024-12-27T22:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-27T16:37:53Z
## Message ID: 20241227-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-26T19:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~663 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -35/39 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-26T19:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2024-12-31T20:00Z, Lucy at 2024-12-31T00:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-30T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-30T13:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-26T19:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-27T16:15:02Z
## Message ID: 20241227-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-27T06:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~811 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -78/-1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-27T06:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-30T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-27T06:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-27T16:12:19Z
## Message ID: 20241227-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-27T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~859 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -129/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-27T01:25:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-27T04:39Z.
Estimated speed: ~985 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -124/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-27T04:39:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CMEs may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T07:01Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-27T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-12-27T04:39:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-27T00:17:53Z
## Message ID: 20241227-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-26T19:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1240 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -73/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-26T19:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T13:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-30T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-26T19:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-12-26T19:00:00-CME-001) is associated with the C9.6 flare from unnumbered region near S05E73 based on GOES SUVI 131 imagery with ID 2024-12-26T18:28:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-26T18:45Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-26T17:05:16Z
## Message ID: 20241226-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-26T04:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~757 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -152/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-26T04:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-29T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-26T04:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-26T14:15:22Z
## Message ID: 20241226-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-26T05:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~849 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -128/-8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-26T05:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T15:58Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-26T05:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-26T03:53:37Z
## Message ID: 20241226-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-26T02:52Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-26T03:15Z.
Flare intensity: M7.4 class.
Source region: N20E51 (Active Region 13938) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2024-12-26T02:52:00-FLR-001.
## Notes:
Simultaneous flaring from AR 3938 (N20E51) and AR 3933 (S08W23); AR 3938 appears to be brighter.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-26T03:15:59Z
## Message ID: 20241226-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-26T03:11Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 18, 2024 - December 24, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-25T21:29:57Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-18T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-12-24T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241225-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 20 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 20 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact NASA missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-12-20T23:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-24T00:59Z, Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20241221-AL-001)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2024-12-23T11:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-12-25T19:16Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notifications 20241223-AL-006, 20241224-AL-001)
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/Detailed_results_20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077.txt
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-12-18T15:00Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-19T14:05Z, Juice at 2024-12-20T12:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-12-21T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241218-AL-003)
2024-12-19T01:25Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-22T08:11Z (see notification 20241220-AL-002)
2024-12-19T17:53Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-20T19:26Z and Psyche at 2024-12-26T10:06Z (see notification 20241220-AL-001)
2024-12-20T10:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-23T20:00Z (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-23T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241220-AL-003)
2024-12-20T23:23Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-23T21:29Z, Lucy at 2024-12-24T02:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-24T18:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2024-12-22T20:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2024-12-25T22:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2024-12-23T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241221-AL-001)
2024-12-21T11:48Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-22T05:19Z and Psyche at 2024-12-20T00:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241221-AL-002)
2024-12-21T20:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-24T12:33Z (see notification 20241221-AL-003)
2024-12-22T04:00Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-23T04:19Z and Psyche at 2024-12-30T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241222-AL-002)
2024-12-23T11:36Z Europa Clipper at 2024-12-26T13:19Z, Juice at 2024-12-25T04:35Z, Lucy at 2024-12-25T22:10Z, Mars at 2024-12-27T16:09Z, STEREO A at 2024-12-26T00:38Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-25T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20241223-AL-006, 20241224-AL-001)
2024-12-24T05:24Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-25T03:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241224-AL-002)
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 4.00 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-12-23T15:20Z (see notifications 20241223-AL-004 and 20241223-AL-005). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the combined arrival of the S-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-15T01:25Z and the C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-15T04:23Z detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2024-12-17T04:40Z and possibly the coronal hole high speed stream arrival detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2024-12-21, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 702 km/s. The energetic electron flux levels subsided towards background levels on 2024-12-24.
A solar energetic particle event was observed at STEREO A on 2024-12-18 in which the flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-12-18T12:01Z (see notifications 20241218-AL-001 and 20241218-AL-002). This SEP event is likely associated with the far-sided ER-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-17T16:00Z in the previous reporting period (see notification 20241217-AL-005). The 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A subsided below the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV later on 2024-12-18. Beginning on 2024-12-19, the particle environment at SOHO and GOES became elevated above background levels. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-12-21T16:12Z and remained elevated at or near threshold levels for the following day. The fluxes remained elevated above background levels through the end of the reporting period (see notification 20241222-AL-001). At GOES, the flux of the >10 MeV protons did not exceed the threshold of 10 pfu but did remain elevated above background levels through the end of the reporting period. These observed proton enhancements were likely associated with the C-type CME first observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-12-19T17:53Z and the C-type CME first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-12-21T11:48Z. Additional influence from numerous M-class flares from Active Regions 13924, 13928, and 13932 may have also contributed to the elevated particle environments at SOHO and GOES.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above as well as the solar energetic particle events observed at SOHO and STEREO A.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-23T11:36Z ~823 C -2/-48 45 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-18T06:36Z ~534 C NONE(POS)/12 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-18T15:00Z ~620 C 66/-21 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-19T01:25Z ~669 C -129/30 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-19T17:53Z ~814 C 126/-26 52 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-12-20T02:18Z ~556 C 63/-73 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-20T08:09Z ~529 C NONE(POS)/-56 25 STEREO A
2024-12-20T10:24Z ~719 C -76/-7 38 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-20T21:12Z ~526 C NONE(POS)/-76 15 SOHO
2024-12-21T11:48Z ~516 C 90/-13 21 SOHO
2024-12-21T17:48Z ~574 C NONE(POS)/-84 28 SOHO
2024-12-21T20:00Z ~853 C -121/35 41 SOHO
2024-12-22T00:12Z ~629 C -75/46 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-22T01:25Z ~704 C -51/-21 23 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-22T04:00Z ~632 C 99/-34 35 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-22T17:48Z ~554 C NONE(POS)/-75 23 SOHO
2024-12-22T19:36Z ~552 C NONE(POS)/-2 18 SOHO
2024-12-23T11:48Z ~645 C 148/-55 38 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-23T20:00Z ~846 C NONE(POS)/-49 10 SOHO
2024-12-24T05:24Z ~898 C 70/-36 18 SOHO
2024-12-24T20:24Z ~1104 O 90/-60 24 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-25T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-12-31T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eleven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13932 (S18E05) was the source of the majority of the M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity during the outlook period. Active Regions 13928 (S14W17) and 13938 (N20E54) have also exhibited M-class flaring during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit similar flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between minor and strong levels during the outlook period. There may be an enhancement in geomagnetic activity early in the outlook period beginning on or around 2024-12-25 due to the anticipated arrival of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-23T11:36Z. Additionally, a coronal hole currently centered around N25W45 may become geoeffective early in the outlook period, around 2024-12-26.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-25T19:17:57Z
## Message ID: 20241225-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-25T10:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~771 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -143/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-25T10:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-25T10:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-25T17:17:50Z
## Message ID: 20241225-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-25T08:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~792 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -157/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-25T08:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-25T08:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth, Juice, Lucy, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-25T15:08:38Z
## Message ID: 20241225-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-25T04:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~876 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -2/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-25T04:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juice (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2024-12-26T17:00Z, Lucy at 2024-12-27T22:00Z, Mars at 2024-12-29T04:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-28T20:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-28T06:00Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-27T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the northern flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-27T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-25T04:48:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-12-25T04:48:00-CME-001) is likely associated with M4.9 flare from Active Region 13932 (S18E10) with ID 2024-12-25T04:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-25T04:49Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-24T21:34:27Z
## Message ID: 20241224-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-24T05:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~898 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 70/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-24T05:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-25T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-24T05:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-24T12:53:15Z
## Message ID: 20241224-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241223-AL-006). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-12-25T07:37Z and 2024-12-26T03:47Z (average arrival 2024-12-25T18:43Z) for 89% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2024-12-26T16:03Z and 2024-12-27T20:51Z (average arrival 2024-12-27T08:39Z) for 89% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-12-25T05:58Z and 2024-12-25T23:02Z (average arrival 2024-12-25T14:44Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 60% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Europa Clipper at 2024-12-26T13:19Z, Juice at 2024-12-25T04:35Z, Lucy at 2024-12-25T22:10Z, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow) at 2024-12-25T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241223-AL-006).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M SWAO is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-23_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077/Detailed_results_20241223_113600_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA077.txt
###
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-23T18:13:40Z
## Message ID: 20241223-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-23T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~823 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -2/-48 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2024-12-26T13:19Z, Juice at 2024-12-25T04:35Z, Lucy at 2024-12-25T22:10Z, Mars at 2024-12-27T16:09Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-26T00:38Z. The flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-25T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-25T19:16Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M8.9 flare from Active Region 13932 (S18E30) with ID 2024-12-23T11:06:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-23T11:12Z (see notifications 20241223-AL-001 and 20241223-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-23T15:47:49Z
## Message ID: 20241223-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-12-23T15:20Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241215-AL-002) and CME with ID 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241215-AL-002). The arrival of this CME was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at2024-12-17T04:40Z (see notification 20241217-AL-002) and simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-17T06:10Z (see notifications 20241217-AL-001 and 20241217-AL-003).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-23T15:28:51Z
## Message ID: 20241223-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-12-23T15:20Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M8.9 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-23T12:08:31Z
## Message ID: 20241223-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-23T11:06Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-23T11:12Z.
Flare intensity: M8.9 class.
Source region: S18E30 (Active Region 13932) (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-23T11:15:10Z
## Message ID: 20241223-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-23T11:10Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-22T21:03:22Z
## Message ID: 20241222-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-22T04:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~632 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 99/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-22T04:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and BepiColombo. The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-12-30T12:00Z and the leading edge may reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-23T04:19Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-22T04:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241222_092600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-22T13:49:05Z
## Message ID: 20241222-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-12-21T16:12Z.
NASA spacecraft at L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-12-21T16:12:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-12-21T16:12:00-SEP-001) may be associated with the far-sided partial halo CME with ID 2024-12-19T17:53:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241220-AL-001) and/or the CME with ID 2024-12-21T11:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241221-AL-002). Additional influence from the M2.1 flare from Active Region 13924 (S20W86) with ID 2024-12-20T07:20:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-20T07:26Z, M2.5 flare from Active Region 13928 (S14E70) with ID 2024-12-20T11:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-20T11:18Z, and/or the M1.9 flare from Active Region 13932 (S15E61) with ID 2024-12-21T00:33:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-21T00:38Z may have contributed to this event.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-21T23:28:47Z
## Message ID: 20241221-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-21T20:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~853 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -121/35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-21T20:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-24T12:33Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-21T20:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-21T16:51:45Z
## Message ID: 20241221-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-21T11:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~516 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-21T11:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact) and BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-12-30T00:00Z and BepiColombo at 2024-12-22T12:11Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-21T11:48:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241221_180400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Lucy, Europa Clipper, Juice, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-21T14:41:24Z
## Message ID: 20241221-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-20T23:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~484 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -11/21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-20T23:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, Lucy (minor impact), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-23T21:29Z and Lucy at 2024-12-24T02:00Z, and the flank will reach Europa Clipper at 2024-12-24T18:00Z, Juice at 2024-12-22T20:00Z, Mars at 2024-12-25T22:00Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-23T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-24T00:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-20T23:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-20T17:57:57Z
## Message ID: 20241220-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-20T10:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~719 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -76/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-20T10:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-23T20:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-23T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-20T01:38:00-CME-001, 2024-12-20T10:24:00-CME-001):
The linked simulation results also include the S-type CME event with Activity ID 2024-12-20T01:38:00-CME-001.
This CME event (2024-12-20T10:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.4 flare from Active Region 13932 (approximately S18E75) with ID 2024-12-20T10:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-20T10:11Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-20T01:07:29Z
## Message ID: 20241220-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-19T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~669 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -129/30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-19T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-22T08:11Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-19T01:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-20T00:19:42Z
## Message ID: 20241220-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-19T17:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~814 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 126/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-19T17:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche and BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-12-26T10:06Z and BepiColombo at 2024-12-20T19:26Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-19T17:53:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
