Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250426-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-04-26T14:50Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-26T14:50:19Z
## Message ID: 20250426-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-26T07:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~645 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 126/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-26T07:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-27T10:00Z, Juice at 2025-04-29T04:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-28T00:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-04-27T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-26T07:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-25T16:46:17Z
## Message ID: 20250425-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-25T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~671 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -93/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-25T03:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-25T03:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-24T21:57:10Z
## Message ID: 20250424-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-24T17:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~599 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -102/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-24T17:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-26T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-24T17:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-24T20:48:32Z
## Message ID: 20250424-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-24T04:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~537 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -93/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-24T04:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-25T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-24T04:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Parker Solar Probe, BepiColombo, Juice, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-24T20:09:28Z
## Message ID: 20250424-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-04-24T06:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250424-AL-003), now simulated with the CME with ID 2025-04-24T08:12:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Parker Solar Probe, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-25T20:18Z, and the combined flank will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-25T12:00Z, Juice at 2025-04-26T12:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-04-25T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-24T06:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~645 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/43 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-24T06:36:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-24T08:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~675 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 112/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-24T08:12:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-24T06:36:00-CME-001, 2025-04-24T08:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-24T17:45:01Z
## Message ID: 20250424-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-24T06:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~645 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/43 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-24T06:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-25T12:00Z, Juice at 2025-04-27T02:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-24T06:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-24T16:48:39Z
## Message ID: 20250424-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-24T13:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~709 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -93/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-24T13:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-25T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-24T13:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-24T11:30:33Z
## Message ID: 20250424-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2025-04-24T06:10Z.
The shock may be associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250422-AL-002). Magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for April 16, 2025 - April 22, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-23T19:11:49Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-16T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-04-22T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250423-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 4 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 5 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-04-22T08:48Z may have a glancing blow to NASA missions near Earth at 2025-04-24T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), with a possible Kp index of 4-6 (below minor to moderate) (see notification 20250422-AL-002).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-04-16T00:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-17T12:30Z (see notification 20250416-AL-007).
2025-04-17T01:25Z Juice at 2025-04-19T18:27Z, BepiColombo at 2025-04-18T08:00Z (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-18T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250417-AL-001).
2025-04-22T08:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-04-23T03:00Z (glancing blow) and STEREO A at 2025-04-24T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250422-AL-002).
2025-04-22T10:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-04-23T05:02Z, Juice at 2025-04-24T08:44Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-23T18:49Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-04-23T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250422-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity reached severe levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 7.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 7.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-04-16T18:00Z-21:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE in the previous reporting period at 2025-04-15T16:36Z (see notification 20250415-AL-002) which was likely associated with the arrival of the C-type CMEs first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-04-13T08:00Z and 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the S-type CMEs first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-04-12T00:48Z, 2025-04-13T00:12Z, and 2025-04-13T07:48Z. In addition, the Kp reached 5.33 for the synoptic period 2025-04-21T12:00Z-15:00Z due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on 2025-04-21 associated with an interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-04-20T17:29Z (see notification 20250421-AL-001). The maximum sustained solar wind speed reached approximately 720 km/s.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low this reporting period.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-04-22T08:48Z ~1583 O 2/-40 24 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-04-16T00:48Z ~553 C -107/-3 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-17T01:25Z ~586 C 80/3 20 SOHO
2025-04-17T11:00Z ~949 C -93/57 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-17T15:12Z ~1069 O -102/57 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-19T00:00Z ~1079 O -93/-75 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-19T17:00Z ~783 C NONE(POS)/-85 25 SOHO
2025-04-22T10:24Z ~955 C 93/1 33 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-23T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-04-29T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Numerous Active Regions have produced low level C-class flaring as well as occasional M-class flaring during the report period and may produce additional flaring activity as they traverse the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels during the outlook period. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may be elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-04-21.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-22T17:07:43Z
## Message ID: 20250422-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-22T08:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1583 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 2/-40 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-23T03:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-24T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-24T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-22T14:38:32Z
## Message ID: 20250422-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-22T10:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~955 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 93/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-22T10:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-23T05:02Z, Juice at 2025-04-24T08:44Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-23T18:49Z, and the flank of the CME at Solar Orbiter at 2025-04-23T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-22T10:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-04-22T10:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.3 flare from AR 14060 (N08W90) with ID 2025-04-22T09:58:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-04-22T10:49Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-21T01:47:57Z
## Message ID: 20250421-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR/ACE at L1 at 2025-04-20T17:29Z.
The cause of this shock is under analysis. Magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm may be possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-17T16:40:44Z
## Message ID: 20250417-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-17T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~586 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 80/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-17T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice, BepiColombo (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-04-19T18:27Z and the flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-18T08:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-18T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-17T01:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T21:39:55Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-16T00:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~553 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-16T00:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-17T12:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-16T00:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T21:12:47Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2025-04-16T18:00Z to 2025-04-16T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-002) and the combined arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, with possible influence from the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, and/or CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-04-15T23:21:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T21:07:25Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.67 (severe) during the synoptic period 2025-04-16T18:00Z to 2025-04-16T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20250415-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for April 09, 2025 - April 15, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T19:25:28Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-09T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-04-15T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250416-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 25 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 14 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-04-13T00:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-04-15T19:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-13T07:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-04-15T19:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-13T08:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-04-15T19:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-13T08:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-04-15T19:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
---The combined arrival of the above CMEs may have been detected at L1 around 2025-04-15T16:36Z. Analysis of this event is ongoing.
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-04-10T08:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-04-11T18:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2025-04-13T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-11T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250410-AL-001).
2025-04-11T13:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-04-12T20:00Z (glancing blow) and STEREO A at 2025-04-14T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250412-AL-002).
2025-04-11T21:48Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-16T20:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-16T04:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-12T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250412-AL-001).
2025-04-13T00:12Z Psyche at 2025-04-20T18:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z (minor impact) and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-13T07:48Z Psyche at 2025-04-20T18:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z (minor impact) and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-13T08:00Z Psyche at 2025-04-20T18:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z (minor impact) and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-13T08:12Z Psyche at 2025-04-20T18:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z (minor impact) and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, and 20250414-AL-002).
2025-04-14T14:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-15T22:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250414-AL-003).
2025-04-14T15:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-15T22:00Z (glancing blow).
2025-04-15T15:24Z Juno at 2025-04-30T06:00Z (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-16T16:58Z (see notification 20250415-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-04-15T21:00Z to 2025-04-16T00:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-04-15T16:36Z (see notification 20250415-AL-002) which was likely associated with the arrival of the C-type CMEs first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-04-13T08:00Z and 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the S-type CMEs first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-04-12T00:48Z, 2025-04-13T00:12Z, and 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-04-15T23:21Z (see notification 20250415-AL-006).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period. This elevation of energetic electron flux levels since 2025-04-05T12:25Z was associated with a series of coronal hole high speed streams which arrived on 2025-04-03, on 2025-04-08, and 2025-04-12 (see notifications 20250409-AL-001, 20250411-AL-001, 20250413-AL-001, and 20250415-AL-001). The electron flux decreased below the threshold of 1000 pfu at the end of the reporting period on 2025-04-15.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-04-13T08:00Z ~777 C -12/-34 35 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-13T08:12Z ~619 C -37/-4 38 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-04-09T06:48Z ~907 C -90/32 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-09T22:00Z ~1136 O NONE(POS)/2 10 SOHO
2025-04-10T08:36Z ~612 C 78/2 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-11T13:48Z ~917 C 43/-18 10 SOHO
2025-04-11T21:48Z ~1106 O -80/43 33 SOHO
2025-04-12T03:24Z ~660 C 155/-38 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-12T06:36Z ~634 C 158/-36 17 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-12T10:48Z ~627 C 158/-36 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-12T12:00Z ~753 C -1/43 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-14T14:12Z ~569 C -95/5 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-14T15:00Z ~1121 O 143/-65 28 SOHO
2025-04-14T15:24Z ~726 C -105/-37 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-14T23:12Z ~682 C 85/-50 15 SOHO
2025-04-15T15:24Z ~972 C -99/3 23 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-15T23:36Z ~571 C NONE(POS)/-4 13 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-16T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-04-22T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently four numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14055 rotated off the Earth-facing disk on 2025-04-15 and was responsible for a partially-occulted M1.3 flare at the end of the reporting period. This region may continue to exhibit notable flaring and may be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between minor and strong levels during the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity reached strong levels with Kp = 7.33 during the synoptic period 2025-04-16T12:00Z-15:00Z (see notifications 20250416-AL-003 and 20250416-AL-004). This increase in geomagnetic activity is associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-04-15T16:36Z described in the summary above. Further enhancement of geomagnetic activity is possible on or around 2025-04-20 due to a coronal hole currently centered around S40E35 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T15:38:03Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.33 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-04-16T12:00Z to 2025-04-16T15:00Z.
The storm is caused by Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-002) and the combined arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, with possible influence from the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, and/or CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-04-15T23:21:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T15:05:20Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 7.33 (strong) during the synoptic period 2025-04-16T12:00Z to 2025-04-16T15:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20250415-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T00:16:28Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-04-15T21:00Z to 2025-04-16T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-002) and the combined arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), with possible influence from the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), and CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Magnetopause Crossing with ID 2025-04-15T23:21:00-MPC-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-006).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-16T00:09:09Z
## Message ID: 20250416-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-04-15T21:00Z to 2025-04-16T00:00Z.
The storm is caused by CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 (see notification(s) 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001.
## Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification(s) 20250415-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-15T23:31:02Z
## Message ID: 20250415-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-04-15T23:21Z.
The activity is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-002) and the combined arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), with possible influence from the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), and CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and Geomagnetic Storm with ID 2025-04-15T18:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20250415-AL-004, 20250415-AL-005).
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-15T21:15:37Z
## Message ID: 20250415-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-04-15T18:00Z to 2025-04-15T21:00Z.
The storm is caused by Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-04-15T16:36:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20250415-AL-002) and the combined arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002) and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), with possible influence from the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002), and CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-15T21:03:06Z
## Message ID: 20250415-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-04-15T18:00Z to 2025-04-15T21:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-15T20:12:53Z
## Message ID: 20250415-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-15T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~972 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -99/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T15:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-04-30T06:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-16T16:58Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-15T15:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250415_183700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-15T17:20:07Z
## Message ID: 20250415-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR/ACE at L1 at 2025-04-15T16:36Z.
The shock is likely associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 and CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, with possible influence from the arrival of CME with ID 2025-04-12T00:48:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, and/or CME with ID 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250413-AL-002, 20250414-AL-001, 20250414-AL-002). Magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-15T11:41:21Z
## Message ID: 20250415-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-04-15T11:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2025-04-12, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 550 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 400 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-15T11:10:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
Prior to the onset of the current Radiation Belt Enhancement event, the energetic electron fluxes remained elevated after the previous RBE event with ID 2025-04-05T12:25:00-RBE-001 which was associated with high speed streams that arrived on 2025-04-03, 2025-04-08, and 2025-04-12 (see notifications 20250405-AL-003, 20250405-AL-004, 20250407-AL-001, 20250409-AL-001, 20250411-AL-001, and 20250413-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T20:03:53Z
## Message ID: 20250414-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-14T14:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~569 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -95/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-14T14:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-15T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-14T14:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Psyche, BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T16:06:19Z
## Message ID: 20250414-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250413-AL-002 and 20250414-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Psyche, BepiColombo and STEREO A. The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Psyche at 2025-04-20T18:00Z, BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~485 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~777 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001
3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~619 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001
4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~483 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T12:58:16Z
## Message ID: 20250414-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250413-AL-002). The 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 halo CME was reanalyzed in more detail and two additional fronts were included in the current simulation (see CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
CME parameters:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z; parameters were not updated.
Estimated speed: ~485 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z, parameters have been updated.
Estimated speed: ~777 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001
3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~619 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001
4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~483 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Psyche, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-13T22:18:04Z
## Message ID: 20250413-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~485 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~751 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -9/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Psyche (minor impact), STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 will reach Psyche at 2025-04-19T20:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-15T17:02Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME with ID 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 may reach Lucy at 2025-04-18T00:00Z, BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T10:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-04-17T18:00Z, and Mars at 2025-04-17T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T13:36Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-13T15:44:56Z
## Message ID: 20250413-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux first crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-04-05T12:25Z (see notifications 20250405-AL-003, 20250405-AL-004, 20250407-AL-001, 20250409-AL-001 and 20250411-AL-001). The most recent crossing of the 1000 pfu threshold was at 2025-04-11T11:05Z, and the fluxes are currently elevated but below the threshold.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels have been caused by a series of coronal hole high speed streams which arrived on 2025-04-03, on 2025-04-08, and most lately on 2025-04-12. This most recent high speed stream reached the maximum sustained speed of approximately 550 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 475 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-12T02:06:41Z
## Message ID: 20250412-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-11T13:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~917 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 43/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-11T13:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-12T20:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-14T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-11T13:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-12T01:17:32Z
## Message ID: 20250412-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-11T21:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1106 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -80/43 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-11T21:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-16T20:00Z, Mars at 2025-04-16T04:00Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-12T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-11T21:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-11T12:39:08Z
## Message ID: 20250411-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-04-11T11:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-04-05T12:25Z (see notifications 20250405-AL-003, 20250405-AL-004, 20250407-AL-001, 20250409-AL-001) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-04-03, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 720 km/s with possible additional influence from the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-04-08, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 600 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 480 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-10T19:56:40Z
## Message ID: 20250410-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-10T08:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~612 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 78/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-10T08:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-11T18:00Z, Juice at 2025-04-13T04:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-11T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-10T08:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for April 02, 2025 - April 08, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-09T17:19:52Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-02T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-04-08T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250409-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 2 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 13 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-04-03T04:12Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-06T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), with a possible Kp index of 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notification 20250403-AL-001). The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-04-03T04:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-04-04T09:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250403-AL-001).
2025-04-03T18:24Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-08T14:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-09T09:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-08T01:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-05T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250404-AL-001).
2025-04-04T03:24Z Juno at 2025-04-19T00:00Z (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-05T13:39Z (see notification 20250404-AL-002).
2025-04-05T02:24Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-06T05:04Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-04-05T18:21Z, and Juice at 2025-04-07T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250405-AL-006).
2025-04-05T04:00Z Juno at 2025-04-18T22:00Z (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-06T15:12Z (see notification 20250405-AL-005).
2025-04-05T06:36Z Juno at 2025-04-18T22:00Z (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-06T15:12Z (see notification 20250405-AL-005).
2025-04-07T14:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-08T23:12Z (see notification 20250407-AL-002).
2025-04-07T15:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-08T23:12Z (see notification 20250407-AL-002).
2025-04-08T06:00Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-12T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-04-11T20:56Z, Lucy at 2025-04-12T22:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-09T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250408-AL-001).
2025-04-08T08:00Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-14T00:00Z (glancing blow) and Mars at 2025-04-13T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250408-AL-002).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-04-05T00:00Z-03:00Z (see notifications 20250405-AL-001 and 20250405-AL-002). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-04-03, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 750 km/s.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-04-05T12:25Z (see notifications 20250405-AL-003, 20250405-AL-004, and 20250407-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-04-03. The energetic electron flux levels remain elevated throughout the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the >15.8-39.8 MeV channel detected at SOHO were elevated at the beginning of the reporting period due to a solar energetic particle event first detected in the previous reporting period at SOHO at 2025-03-31T10:09Z and GOES at 2025-03-31T11:05Z (see notifications 20250331-AL-002 and 20250331-AL-003). The protons at GOES and SOHO decreased to near background levels around 2025-04-05. The 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO were elevated but below the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV at the beginning of the reporting period and then decreased to near background levels by 2025-04-04, remaining at near background levels through the remainder of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and the elevated energetic electron flux and in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-04-05 19:54:00 20:12:00 20:05:00 M1.0 S18W15 ( 14048 )
2025-04-08 22:08:00 22:36:00 22:22:00 M1.5 S16W53 ( 14048 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-04-03T04:12Z ~838 C -7/-35 19 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-04-03T18:24Z ~884 C -70/-10 27 SOHO
2025-04-04T03:24Z ~701 C -107/6 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-04T15:12Z ~651 C 25/-62 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-04T16:36Z ~1000 O 92/81 27 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-05T02:24Z ~784 C 110/-9 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-05T04:00Z ~539 C -110/-1 36 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-05T06:36Z ~749 C -133/8 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-06T04:00Z ~626 C -112/68 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-06T18:36Z ~511 C -112/34 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-06T21:24Z ~513 C NONE(POS)/20 15 SOHO
2025-04-07T04:36Z ~579 C 76/-60 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-07T14:00Z ~683 C -104/17 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-07T15:36Z ~513 C -100/11 17 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-08T06:00Z ~1347 O -59/3 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-04-08T08:00Z ~1094 O -58/7 11 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-09T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-04-15T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently numerous Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14048 (S16W48) produced C-class flaring and two M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to produce flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels during the outlook period. Coronal holes currently centered around N00W35 and S30W10 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting on or around 2025-04-11 and 2025-04-12, respectively. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the coronal hole high speed streams detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-04-03 and 2025-04-08.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-09T12:36:51Z
## Message ID: 20250409-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux has been elevated for the last five days. The latest crossing of the threshold of 1000 pfu occurred on 2025-04-09T11:30Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-04-03 (see notifications 20250405-AL-003, 20250405-AL-004 and 20250407-AL-001), reaching a maximum solar wind speeds of approximately 750 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 500 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-04-05T12:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
The current Radiation Belt Enhancement event could possibly be caused by a combination of the 2025-04-03 high speed stream and the more recent 2025-04-08 high speed stream event, which reached a maximum solar wind speed of approximately 545 km/s.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-08T16:33:30Z
## Message ID: 20250408-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-08T08:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1094 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -58/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-08T08:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-14T00:00Z and Mars at 2025-04-13T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-08T08:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-08T12:52:51Z
## Message ID: 20250408-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-08T06:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1347 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -59/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-08T06:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper, Mars, Lucy (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-12T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-04-11T20:56Z, Lucy at 2025-04-12T22:00Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-09T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-08T06:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-07T22:48:40Z
## Message ID: 20250407-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-07T14:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~683 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -104/17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-07T14:00:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-07T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~513 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -100/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-07T15:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-08T23:12Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-07T14:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-07T15:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-07T12:46:35Z
## Message ID: 20250407-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-04-07T04:20Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-04-05T12:25Z (see notifications 20250405-AL-003 and 20250405-AL-004) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-04-03, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 620 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 500 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-05T20:08:26Z
## Message ID: 20250405-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-05T02:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~784 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 110/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-05T02:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-04-06T05:04Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-04-05T18:21Z, and the flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-04-07T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-05T02:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Juno)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-05T18:23:00Z
## Message ID: 20250405-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-05T06:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~749 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -133/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-05T06:36:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-05T04:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~539 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -110/-1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-05T04:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the CMEs may impact Juno (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juno at 2025-04-18T22:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-06T15:12Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-05T06:36:00-CME-001, 2025-04-05T04:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250405_113200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-05T12:46:59Z
## Message ID: 20250405-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-04-05T12:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a high speed stream which arrived on 2025-04-03, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 620 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 550 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-05T12:32:06Z
## Message ID: 20250405-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-04-05T12:25Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-05T12:27:29Z
## Message ID: 20250405-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
A space weather storm recently affected Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-04-05T00:00Z to 2025-04-05T03:00Z.
The storm was caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which first started on 2025-04-03.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-05T03:07:59Z
## Message ID: 20250405-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-04-05T00:00Z to 2025-04-05T03:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-04T15:31:13Z
## Message ID: 20250404-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-04T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~701 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-04T03:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-04-19T00:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-05T13:39Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-04T03:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250404_080300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-04T01:56:56Z
## Message ID: 20250404-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-03T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~884 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -70/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-03T18:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-08T14:00Z, Lucy at 2025-04-09T09:00Z, Mars at 2025-04-08T01:00Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-04-05T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-03T18:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-03T16:18:03Z
## Message ID: 20250403-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-04-03T04:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~838 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -7/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-04-03T04:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-04T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-06T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-04-03T04:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for March 26, 2025 - April 01, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-02T17:59:16Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-26T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-04-01T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250402-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 16 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 8 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-03-28T15:24Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), with a possible Kp index of 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, and 20250330-AL-001). The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2025-03-31T10:16Z.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-03-26T09:49Z Juice at 2025-03-29T00:00Z (minor impact), Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-27T12:00Z (minor impact).
2025-03-28T15:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T15:05Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-04-01T14:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-02T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-01T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Juno at 2025-04-10T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250330-AL-001).
2025-03-29T23:12Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-05T04:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-05T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-04T14:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-31T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250330-AL-004).
2025-03-30T01:36Z Europa Clipper at 2025-04-05T04:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-04-05T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-04-04T14:00Z (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-31T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250330-AL-004).
2025-03-30T08:36Z Juice at 2025-03-31T22:43Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-30T18:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250330-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.33 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-03-26T18:00Z-21:00Z (see notifications 20250326-AL-002 and 20250326-AL-003). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-26 which reached maximum sustained speeds of approximately 865 km/s. The arrival of this coronal hole high speed stream may have also been detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on 2025-03-28.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-28T14:00Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-001, 20250330-AL-002, and 20250401-AL-003). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-03-26. The energetic electron flux levels remain elevated through the end of the reporting period.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO and GOES during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-03-31T10:09Z (see notifications 20250331-AL-002 and 20250331-AL-003). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-03-31T11:05Z (see notifications 20250331-AL-002 and 20250331-AL-003). This SEP event was likely associated with the X1.1 flare peaking at 2025-03-28T15:20Z from Active Region 14046 (N06E80) and the associated O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-03-28T15:24Z. The solar energetic particle event was further enhanced by the arrival of the O-type CME mentioned above detected as an interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-31T10:16Z (see notification 20250331-AL-004). For the remainder of the reporting period, the particle environment at SOHO and GOES remained elevated above their respective thresholds. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons was elevated but below the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-28T15:24Z ~1838 O -86/19 37 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-03-26T15:49Z ~644 C -124/-43 16 SOHO
2025-03-27T22:25Z ~856 C -43/-53 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-29T23:12Z ~835 C -86/-19 18 SOHO
2025-03-30T01:36Z ~547 C -85/-38 42 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-30T02:24Z ~715 C NONE(POS)/36 10 SOHO
2025-03-30T04:38Z ~986 C -70/-59 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-30T08:36Z ~1154 O 87/30 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-31T00:00Z ~548 C -65/-31 12 SOHO
2025-04-01T18:24Z ~662 C NONE(POS)/20 45 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-04-02T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-04-08T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the outlook period. There are currently numerous Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14046 (N05E13) and 14048 (S16E33) have produced significant flares and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N10W15 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting around 2025-04-04.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T18:23:24Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-04-01T17:29Z.
The cause of this shock is still under analysis. Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm may be expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T14:34:59Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-04-01T10:05Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-28T14:00Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-001, 20250330-AL-002) are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-03-26. The solar wind observed at L1 reached a maximum speed of approximately 845 km/s and is currently around 400 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.6 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T11:28:21Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-04-01T06:37Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-04-01T06:46Z.
Flare intensity: M5.6 class.
Source region: N03E29 (Active Region 14046) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-01T06:54:50Z
## Message ID: 20250401-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-04-01T06:45Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T12:01:11Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-03-31T10:16Z.
The shock is likely caused by the CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001). Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Activity ID: 2025-03-31T10:16:00-IPS-001.
## Notes:
The shock likely resulted in further enhancement of the already elevated >10 MeV proton flux at GOES (geosynchronous orbit), which briefly exceeded 10 pfu at 2025-03-31T11:05Z, and of one of the (already elevated) >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO, which briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV at 2025-03-31T10:09Z (see notification 20250331-AL-003).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES, SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T11:38:24Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO (at L1) and GOES (near Earth environment). The flux of one of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV at 2025-03-31T10:09Z and the flux of > 10 MeV protons at GOES exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-03-31T11:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude and high-inclination LEO orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-31T11:05:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event is likely associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001) which may have arrived at L1 at 2025-03-31T10:16Z (analysis of the developing arrival signature is in progress).
Modeled solar energetic particle event was predicted by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-03-30T21:50Z (see notification 20250330-AL-005 and 20250331-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T11:14:36Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-03-31T11:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP Prediction
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-31T01:39:14Z
## Message ID: 20250331-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event forecasted near L1 orbit by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-03-31T02:17Z. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels may exceed 10^(-1) pfu/MeV within next few hours.
NASA spacecraft at the L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-31T02:17:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
Earlier modeled solar energetic particle event was detected by the HESPERIA RELeASE (ACE/EPAM) model starting at 2025-03-30T21:50Z (see notification 20250330-AL-005)
This modeled SEP event (2025-03-30T21:50:00-SEP-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP Prediction
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T22:09:49Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event forecasted near L1 orbit by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-03-30T21:50Z. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels may exceed 10^(-1) pfu/MeV within next few hours.
NASA spacecraft at the L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-30T21:50:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-03-30T21:50:00-SEP-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003) and CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, 20250329-AL-002, 20250330-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T21:25:11Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-29T23:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~835 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -86/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-29T23:12:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-30T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~547 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 42 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -85/-38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-30T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-05T04:00Z, Lucy at 2025-04-05T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-04-04T14:00Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-31T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-03-29T23:12:00-CME-001, 2025-03-30T01:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-03-29T23:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.9 flare from Active Region 4048 (S15E85) with ID 2025-03-29T22:38:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-29T23:00Z.
This CME event (2025-03-30T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.5 flare from Active Region 4048 (S15E80) with ID 2025-03-30T01:19:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-30T01:48Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T16:26:03Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-30T08:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1154 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 87/30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-30T08:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and Solar Orbiter (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-03-31T22:43Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-30T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-30T08:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T14:31:01Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-29T09:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-03-28T14:00Z are caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-26 and reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 840 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 420 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-30T01:59:22Z
## Message ID: 20250330-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250328-AL-004, 20250329-AL-001, and 20250329-AL-002). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2025-04-10T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Simulations also estimate that the CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T15:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-04-01T14:00Z, Lucy at 2025-04-02T12:00Z, and Mars at 2025-04-01T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are (O-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1838 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -86/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_172700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juno, Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-29T01:32:52Z
## Message ID: 20250329-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250329-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-04-07T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-31T16:18Z, Mars at 2025-03-31T09:42Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T12:38Z. The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-29T16:00Z and Lucy at 2025-04-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are (O-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1942 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250328_171400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-29T00:53:59Z
## Message ID: 20250329-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1942 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Mars, OSIRIS-APEX, BepiColombo (glancing blow), and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-31T16:18Z, Mars at 2025-03-31T09:42Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-29T12:38Z. The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-29T16:00Z, and Lucy at 2025-04-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-31T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from Active Region 4046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002, 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T18:55:47Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-28T15:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1942 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 48 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -81/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
NASA spacecraft in the vicinity of Mars, Jupiter and the following spacecraft including Europa Clipper, Lucy, and OSIRIS-APEX may be affected. This event is still developing and updates will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 (N06E80) with ID 2025-03-28T14:57:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-03-28T15:20Z (see notifications 20250328-AL-002 and 20250328-AL-003).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T15:51:24Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-03-28T15:14Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.1 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T15:36:50Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-03-28T14:57Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-03-28T15:20Z.
Flare intensity: X1.1 class.
Source region: N06E80 (Active Region 14046) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-28T14:30:31Z
## Message ID: 20250328-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-28T14:00Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-26, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 840 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 640 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
