Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20241220-AL-003
Issue Time: 2024-12-20T17:57Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-20T17:57:57Z
## Message ID: 20241220-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-20T10:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~719 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -76/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-20T10:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-23T20:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-23T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-20T01:38:00-CME-001, 2024-12-20T10:24:00-CME-001):
The linked simulation results also include the S-type CME event with Activity ID 2024-12-20T01:38:00-CME-001.
This CME event (2024-12-20T10:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.4 flare from Active Region 13932 (approximately S18E75) with ID 2024-12-20T10:03:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-20T10:11Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-20T01:07:29Z
## Message ID: 20241220-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-19T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~669 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -129/30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-19T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-22T08:11Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-19T01:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-20T00:19:42Z
## Message ID: 20241220-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-19T17:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~814 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 126/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-19T17:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche and BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-12-26T10:06Z and BepiColombo at 2024-12-20T19:26Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-19T17:53:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241219_205300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 11, 2024 - December 17, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-18T23:30:15Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-11T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-12-17T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241218-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate level during this reporting period with 9 M-class flares, 18 C-type CMEs, 1 O-type CME, and 1 ER-type CME (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, an S-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-15T01:25Z and a C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-12-15T04:23Z were estimated to impact NASA missions near Earth. The combined leading edge of these CMEs was estimated to impacts NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-18T01:13Z (plus minus 7 hours) with a possible Kp index of 4-6 (below minor to moderate) (see combined notification 20241215-AL-002). The combined arrival of these CMEs may have been observed at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on or around 2024-12-17. Analysis of this arrival signature is ongoing.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-12-11T10:38Z Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-14T04:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-12-11T21:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-14T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241212-AL-003)
2024-12-14T04:00Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-15T02:29Z, Juice at 2024-12-16T06:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-12-17T08:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-12-14T05:36Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-15T02:11Z, Juice at 2024-12-16T06:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2024-12-17T08:00Z (glancing blow)
2024-12-15T00:53Z Psyche at 2024-12-20T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241215-AL-001)
2024-12-15T04:23Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-16T03:20Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-18T16:30Z, Juice at 2024-12-17T03:11Z, Lucy at 2024-12-18T00:33Z, Mars at 2024-12-20T03:22Z, STEREO A at 2024-12-18T02:50Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-17T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241215-AL-002)
2024-12-15T14:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-18T06:19Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241215-AL-003)
2024-12-16T18:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-20T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241216-AL-001)
2024-12-17T16:00Z Psyche at 2024-12-24T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241217-AL-005)
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-12-17T03:00Z-06:00Z. This minor enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with an interplanetary shock observed at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR around 2024-12-17T04:40Z (see notification 20241217-AL-002). This interplanetary shock and subsequent arrival signature may be associated with the combined arrival of the S-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-15T01:25Z, the C-type CME first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 2024-12-15T04:23Z, and influences of a coronal hole high speed stream. On 2024-12-17, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-17T06:10Z (see notifications 20241217-AL-001 and 20241217-AL-003).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt briefly crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2024-12-12T14:45Z (see notifications 20241212-AL-001 and 20241212-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2024-12-08 in the previous reporting period, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 510 km/s. The energetic electron flux levels subsided towards background levels later in the reporting period on 2024-12-14.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at or near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-15T04:23Z ~536 C 21/-31 45 STEREO A, SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-11T02:23Z ~531 C -23/41 23 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-12-11T06:24Z ~870 C -57/-49 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-11T10:38Z ~656 C -18/41 23 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-12-11T12:12Z ~667 C -172/-13 39 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-11T21:24Z ~689 C -168/-26 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-12T23:24Z ~754 C 100/-17 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-12T23:48Z ~630 C -104/61 17 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-13T04:17Z ~796 C -34/-55 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-13T09:12Z ~538 C -31/-68 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-13T14:48Z ~507 C 180/-49 42 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-14T02:00Z ~748 C -24/-53 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-14T04:00Z ~578 C 70/-35 26 SOHO
2024-12-14T05:36Z ~652 C 58/-33 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-15T00:53Z ~1252 O 116/2 29 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-12-15T14:36Z ~921 C -148/-30 46 SOHO
2024-12-15T20:36Z ~834 C NONE(POS)/-17 33 SOHO
2024-12-16T18:48Z ~502 C -83/-28 30 SOHO
2024-12-17T09:53Z ~502 C NONE(POS)/-40 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-17T16:00Z ~3161 ER 177/-16 44 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-18T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-12-24T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six numbered active regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13920 (N22W79) and 13922 (S18W39) were the source of multiple M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit similar flaring activity during the outlook period. Additionally, an SEP event was recently observed at STEREO A on 2024-12-18 in which the flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-12-18T12:01Z (see notifications 20241218-AL-001and 20241218-AL-002). This SEP event is likely associated with the far-sided and remarkably fast ER-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-17T16:00Z (see notification 20241217-AL-005). The 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A have since subsided below the threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV but currently remain elevated above background levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole structure centered around S15E15 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI) may become geoeffective towards the latter part of the outlook period on or around 2024-12-23.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-18T21:48:16Z
## Message ID: 20241218-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-18T15:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~620 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 66/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-18T15:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo, Juice (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-19T14:05Z, and the flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2024-12-20T12:00Z and STEREO A at 2024-12-21T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-18T15:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-18T13:39:27Z
## Message ID: 20241218-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-12-18T12:01Z.
NASA spacecraft near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-12-18T12:01:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-12-18T12:01:00-SEP-001) is associated with ER-Type CME with ID 2024-12-17T16:00:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20241217-AL-004, 20241217-AL-005). This SEP event may also be associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-18T06:15:00-IPS-001, which itself is likely associated with the combined arrival of CMEs with IDs 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241215-AL-002).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-18T12:15:43Z
## Message ID: 20241218-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-12-18T12:01Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche) - CORRECTION
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-17T20:26:54Z
## Message ID: 20241217-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
ER-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-17T16:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~3161 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 177/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-17T16:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-12-24T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-17T16:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-17T19:58:00Z
## Message ID: 20241217-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
ER-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-17T16:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~3161 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 177/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-17T16:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-12-14T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-17T16:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241217_165600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-17T12:17:30Z
## Message ID: 20241217-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-17T06:10Z.
The activity is associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-17T04:40:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20241217-AL-002). The cause of this shock is still under analysis.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-17T12:14:22Z
## Message ID: 20241217-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z.
The cause of this shock is still being analyzed. Strong magnetospheric compression also observed and geomagnetic storm is possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-17T05:35:16Z
## Message ID: 20241217-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-17T06:10Z.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-16T21:34:37Z
## Message ID: 20241216-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-16T18:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~502 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -83/-28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-16T18:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-20T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-16T18:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-15T23:07:19Z
## Message ID: 20241215-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-15T14:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~921 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -148/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-15T14:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-18T06:19Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-15T14:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-15T22:39:24Z
## Message ID: 20241215-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-15T04:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~536 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 21/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-15T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~410 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 46/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-16T02:46Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-18T20:40Z, Juice at 2024-12-17T04:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-18T02:45Z, Mars at 2024-12-20T09:45Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-18T04:40Z. The flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-17T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-18T01:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001, 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-15T16:43:14Z
## Message ID: 20241215-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-15T00:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~1252 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 116/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-15T00:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-12-20T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-15T00:53:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_033200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_033200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_033200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_033200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_033200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_033200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-12T18:06:21Z
## Message ID: 20241212-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-11T21:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~689 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -168/-26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-11T21:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-14T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-11T21:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-12T15:03:14Z
## Message ID: 20241212-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-12-12T14:45Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2024-12-08, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 550 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 340 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-12T14:52:32Z
## Message ID: 20241212-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2024-12-12T14:45Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for December 04, 2024 - December 10, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-11T23:59:29Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-04T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-12-10T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241211-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 14 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 12 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that a C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-08T09:24Z associated with an X2.2 flare from Active Region 13912 (S07W52) which peaked at 2024-12-08T09:06Z (see notifications 20241208-AL-001 and 20241208-AL-002) would give a glancing blow to NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-11T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) with a possible Kp index of 3-4 (below minor) (see notifications 20241208-AL-003). An ensemble simulation was performed for this CME with 24 members which estimated the CME to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-12-11T04:08Z and 2024-12-11T05:35Z (average arrival 2024-12-11T04:41Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor). Full details of the modeled event are available here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/Detailed_results_20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076.txt (see notification 20241209-AL-003). The arrival of this CME has not been detected by ACE or DSCOVR at L1, but was likely detected by STEREO A IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments around 2024-12-10T11:58Z. Analysis of this event is ongoing.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-12-05T01:24Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-06T11:57Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-08T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241205-AL-001).
2024-12-05T15:48Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-07T04:00Z (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-08T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241205-AL-002).
2024-12-06T00:12Z Psyche at 2024-12-15T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241206-AL-001).
2024-12-08T09:24Z BepiColombo at 2024-12-09T03:08Z, Juice at 2024-12-10T03:49Z, Mars at 2024-12-13T00:25Z, STEREO A at 2024-12-10T23:23Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-11T20:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2024-12-11T10:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-11T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20241208-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 4.0 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 4.0 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-12-09T00:00Z-03:00Z. This maximum value of Kp may have been associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2024-12-08. The maximum sustained solar wind speed observed by DSCOVR at L1 reached approximately 510 km/s on 2024-12-09. On 2024-12-09, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-09T01:57Z (see notifications 20241209-AL-001 and 20241209-AL-002). The solar wind speed observed by DSCOVR at L1 subsided to around or below 400 km/s by the end of the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above background levels towards the end of the reporting period on 2024-12-10, but remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low this reporting period.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-08T09:24Z ~677 C 51/-1 41 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-12-05T01:24Z ~631 C -87/11 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-05T15:48Z ~1096 O -124/-47 31 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-06T00:12Z ~506 C 90/-22 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-06T02:24Z ~795 C -54/15 13 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-10T03:23Z ~606 C -54/-51 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-10T07:00Z ~1005 O -73/-53 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-10T07:24Z ~905 C -73/-63 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-10T11:12Z ~949 C -59/-57 22 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-10T16:55Z ~579 C -24/42 10 SOHO
2024-12-10T17:48Z ~560 C -28/45 15 SOHO
2024-12-10T18:12Z ~630 C -70/-69 18 SOHO
2024-12-10T18:12Z ~656 C -18/41 23 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-10T21:36Z ~670 C -21/37 16 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-11T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-12-17T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Most notably, Active Regions 13922 (S17E46) and 13917 (S08W27) produced multiple M-class flares during the reporting period and will likely continue to exhibit notable flaring activity during the outlook period. Active Region 13920 (N22E11) has been the source of recent flaring activity and may continue to exhibit flaring activity during the outlook period. Additionally, Active Region 13912 (approximated to be around S07W99) produced an X-class flare during the reporting period before rotating off the Earth-facing disk on 2024-12-10 and may be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels throughout the outlook period. A coronal hole structure currently centered along the Earth-facing central meridian near N10W00 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-12-14. Additionally, the > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above background levels on 2024-12-11 but remained below the threshold of 1000 pfu. These energetic electron flux levels may continue to be elevated above background levels during the beginning of the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.7 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-11T16:01:08Z
## Message ID: 20241211-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-11T15:38Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-11T15:49Z.
Flare intensity: M6.7 class.
Source region: ~N10W90 (based on GOES SUVI imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-11T15:51:34Z
## Message ID: 20241211-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-11T15:47Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-10T12:30:04Z
## Message ID: 20241210-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-10T06:36Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-10T06:48Z.
Flare intensity: M6.4 class.
Source region: S15E75 (newly numbered Active Region 13922) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-10T06:51:21Z
## Message ID: 20241210-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-10T06:47Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-09T18:31:01Z
## Message ID: 20241209-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241208-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2024-12-10T19:06Z and 2024-12-11T07:29Z (average arrival 2024-12-10T23:48Z) for 54% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2024-12-12T15:21Z and 2024-12-12T22:47Z (average arrival 2024-12-12T19:23Z) for 33% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2024-12-11T04:08Z and 2024-12-11T05:35Z (average arrival 2024-12-11T04:41Z) for 12% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 99% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at BepiColombo at 2024-12-09T03:08Z, Juice at 2024-12-10T03:49Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-11T20:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2024-12-11T10:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-11T10:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20241208-AL-003).
This CME event (2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an X2.2 flare from Active Region 13912 (S07W52) with ID 2024-12-08T08:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-08T09:06Z (see notifications 20241208-AL-001, 20241208-AL-002).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2024-12-09_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076/Detailed_results_20241208_092400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA076.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-09T01:04:10Z
## Message ID: 20241209-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-09T01:57Z.
The activity is likely associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2024-12-07T21:10:00-IPS-001.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Magnetopause Crossing
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-09T00:54:51Z
## Message ID: 20241209-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Strong compression of the magnetosphere detected. Simulations carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at 2024-12-09T01:57Z.
NASA spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice, Mars, STEREO A, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-08T17:23:37Z
## Message ID: 20241208-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-08T09:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~677 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 51/-1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Juice, Mars, STEREO A, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-09T03:08Z, Juice at 2024-12-10T03:49Z, Mars at 2024-12-13T00:25Z, STEREO A at 2024-12-10T23:23Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2024-12-11T20:00Z, Lucy at 2024-12-11T10:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-11T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-11T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241208_141200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241208_141200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001) is associated with an X2.2 flare from Active Region 13912 (S07W52) with ID 2024-12-08T08:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-12-08T09:06Z (see notifications 20241208-AL-001, 20241208-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X2.2 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-08T13:22:51Z
## Message ID: 20241208-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-12-08T08:50Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-12-08T09:06Z.
Flare intensity: X2.2 class.
Source region: S07W52 (Active Region 13912) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-08T09:06:43Z
## Message ID: 20241208-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-12-08T09:04Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-06T20:39:37Z
## Message ID: 20241206-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-06T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~506 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-06T00:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-12-15T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-06T00:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241206_070300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241206_070300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241206_070300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241206_070300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241206_070300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241206_070300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-05T19:30:37Z
## Message ID: 20241205-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-05T15:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1096 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -124/-47 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-05T15:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-08T10:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-07T04:00Z (plus or minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-05T15:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-05T03:10:26Z
## Message ID: 20241205-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-05T01:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~631 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -87/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-05T01:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-06T11:57Z and the flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-08T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-05T01:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for November 27, 2024 - December 03, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-04T22:21:38Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-11-27T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-12-03T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241204-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during this reporting period with one M-class flare and 10 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-11-27T10:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-29T03:43Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-30T06:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241127-AL-002).
2024-11-27T19:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-30T09:23Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-29T07:47Z (see notification 20241128-AL-001).
2024-11-29T19:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-03T21:00Z (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-01T15:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241129-AL-002).
2024-11-30T11:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-02T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20241130-AL-001).
2024-12-02T16:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-06T00:04Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-04T09:30Z (see notification 20241203-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 4.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2024-11-30T00:00Z-03:00Z. This minor enhancement of geomagnetic activity was associated with a long-duration arrival signature for which an interplanetary shock was identified at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR as early as 2024-11-29T02:15Z (see notification 20241129-AL-001). This arrival signature was most likely associated with the arrival of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-11-25T21:24ZZ (see notification 20241126-AL-002), possibly in a combined front with two earlier slower CMEs first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-11-25T03:12Z and at 2024-11-25T04:00Z. The arrival of these CMEs may have also been detected at STEREO A at 2024-11-29T00:40Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low this reporting period.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2024-11-27 12:27:00 12:49:00 12:46:00 M1.0 S05W50 ( 13901 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-11-27T02:48Z ~854 C 75/-24 16 SOHO
2024-11-27T10:12Z ~646 C -100/5 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-27T19:48Z ~780 C -104/2 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-28T20:00Z ~610 C NONE(POS)/-13 13 SOHO
2024-11-29T06:12Z ~729 C 76/-22 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-29T19:12Z ~704 C -87/-13 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-30T06:00Z ~631 C 90/-71 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-30T11:12Z ~749 C -85/-14 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-12-02T16:36Z ~572 C -90/-22 34 SOHO
2024-12-03T20:48Z ~998 C 90/17 13 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-12-04T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-12-10T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently 6 numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13901, which produced the sole M-class flare of the reporting period, has already rotated behind the limb of the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13905 (S09W94) and 13906 (S16W86), which were the sources of C-class flaring throughout the reporting period, are currently rotating beyond the Earth-facing disk and might produce some far-sided activity during the outlook period. Finally, Active Region 13916 (S16E60) and an unnumbered Active Region currently rotating onto the Earth-facing disk at the latitude of ~S09 produced lower M-class flares today and are likely to exhibit flaring activity as they traverse the Earth-facing disk throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period. Coronal hole structures centered around S35E20 and around N07E35 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI) may become geoeffective on or around 2024-12-08 and 2024-12-09 respectively.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-03T16:40:22Z
## Message ID: 20241203-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-12-02T16:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~572 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -90/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-12-02T16:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-06T00:04Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-04T09:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-12-02T16:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-30T15:59:57Z
## Message ID: 20241130-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-30T11:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~749 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -85/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-30T11:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-02T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-30T11:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-29T23:01:26Z
## Message ID: 20241129-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-29T19:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~704 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -87/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-29T19:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-12-03T21:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-12-01T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-29T19:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-29T02:37:59Z
## Message ID: 20241129-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-11-29T02:15Z.
The shock may be caused by the combined arrival of CME with ID 2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001, CME with ID 2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001 and CME with ID 2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20241126-AL-002). Strong magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-28T01:14:47Z
## Message ID: 20241128-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-27T19:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~780 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -104/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-27T19:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-30T09:23Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-29T07:47Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-27T19:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-27T21:20:40Z
## Message ID: 20241127-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-27T10:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 19 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -100/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-27T10:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe and OSIRIS-APEX (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-29T03:43Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-30T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-27T10:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for November 20, 2024 - November 26, 2024
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-27T20:18:32Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2024-11-20T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2024-11-26T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20241127-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate to high levels during this reporting period with 14 M-class flares, 2 O-type CMEs, and 16 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-11-25T03:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-11-28T20:00Z, Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
2024-11-25T04:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-11-28T20:00Z, Kp index 2-4 (below minor)
2024-11-25T21:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-11-28T06:48Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20241126-AL-002)
2024-11-25T21:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2024-11-29T06:00Z, Kp index 3-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20241126-AL-003)
It was also estimated that the next CMEs are predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024-11-21T02:12Z BepiColombo at 2024-11-22T03:14Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-24T03:01Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-23T08:44Z (see notification 20241121-AL-001).
2024-11-21T13:23Z BepiColombo at 2024-11-22T03:14Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-24T03:01Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-23T08:44Z (see notification 20241121-AL-001).
2024-11-21T18:12Z Psyche at 2024-11-26T21:14Z (see notification 20241121-AL-009).
2024-11-22T07:12Z BepiColombo at 2024-11-23T08:00Z (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-24T10:00Z (glancing blow).
2024-11-23T00:12Z Psyche at 2024-12-02T08:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20241123-AL-001).
2024-11-23T11:12Z BepiColombo at 2024-11-24T08:36Z and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow) at 2024-11-25T20:00Z (see notification 20241123-AL-002).
2024-11-25T21:24Z Europa Clipper at 2024-11-28T12:54Z, Juice at 2024-11-27T11:34Z, Lucy at 2024-11-28T03:08Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-11-28T04:26Z, and STEREO A at 2024-11-28T03:13Z.
2024-11-25T21:36Z BepiColombo at 2024-11-26T20:23Z, Juice at 2024-11-28T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2024-11-29T00:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2024-11-28T22:00Z (glancing blow).
2024-11-26T13:25Z BepiColombo at 2024-11-27T14:52Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-29T03:38Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-28T04:37Z (see notification 20241127-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=3.67 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A during the first half of the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-11-21T19:19Z (see notification 20241121-AL-008). At GOES, the integral flux of the >100 MeV protons exceeded 1 pfu starting at 2024-11-21T18:45Z (see notifications 20241121-AL-003 and 20241121-AL-004) and the integral flux of the >10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2024-11-21T19:25Z (see notification 20241121-AL-006). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-11-21T19:10Z (see notifications 20241121-AL-005 and 20241121-AL-007). This solar energetic particle event is likely associated with the far-sided O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-11-21T18:12Z (see notification 20241121-AL-009). The enhanced particle environment at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A began to subside on 2024-11-22, decreasing below each spacecrafts respective threshold by 2024-11-23 and returning to background levels through the end of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate to high this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-11-25T21:24Z ~935 C -2/-23 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-25T21:36Z ~504 C -41/-14 35 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2024-11-21T13:23Z ~736 C -98/-34 49 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-21T18:12Z ~1560 O 120/11 49 SOHO
2024-11-21T21:13Z ~816 C -48/49 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-22T00:24Z ~886 C 138/26 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-22T08:48Z ~602 C -69/-26 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-22T09:36Z ~683 C 144/-67 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-22T09:38Z ~957 C NONE(POS)/0 18 STEREO A, SOHO
2024-11-22T10:12Z ~551 C -36/31 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-22T23:00Z ~562 C -30/46 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-23T00:12Z ~505 C 126/-5 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-23T11:12Z ~623 C -63/-10 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-23T19:24Z ~764 C 68/-37 28 SOHO
2024-11-25T01:48Z ~619 C -17/35 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2024-11-25T18:00Z ~1092 O 90/-35 27 SOHO
2024-11-25T19:00Z ~572 C NONE(POS)/-57 39 SOHO
2024-11-26T13:25Z ~562 C -90/0 38 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2024-11-27T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2024-12-03T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate to high levels during the outlook period with nine numbered active regions currently on the Earth-facing disk. Of these, Active Region 13906 (S16E10) which produced six of the M-class flares during the reporting period, may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity during the outlook period. Active Regions 13907 (S22W33) and 13905 (S09E03) show signs of magnetic complexity and may also be the source of notable flaring activity during the outlook period. Former Active Regions 13884 and 13886 are expected to rotate onto the Earth-facing disk on or around 2024-11-29 near latitude S07.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There may be an enhancement in geomagnetic activity early in the outlook period beginning around 2024-11-28 due to the anticipated arrival of the C-type CMEs first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-11-25T21:24Z and 2024-11-25T21:36Z. Additionally, a small coronal hole is expected to cross the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk on 2024-11-28 and may become geoeffective by the end of the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-27T00:45:00Z
## Message ID: 20241127-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-26T13:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~562 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -90/0 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-26T13:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2024-11-27T14:52Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-29T03:38Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-28T04:37Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-26T13:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo, Juice, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-26T18:32:02Z
## Message ID: 20241126-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-25T21:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~504 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -41/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-25T21:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), BepiColombo, Juice (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2024-11-26T20:23Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2024-12-13T06:00Z, Juice at 2024-11-28T06:00Z, Lucy at 2024-11-29T00:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2024-11-28T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-11-29T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-25T21:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-26T04:36:22Z
## Message ID: 20241126-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-25T21:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~935 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -2/-23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2024-11-28T12:39Z, Juice at 2024-11-27T11:30Z, Lucy at 2024-11-28T03:29Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-11-28T04:16Z, and STEREO A at 2024-11-28T03:24Z. The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2024-12-10T02:00Z and Mars at 2024-11-29T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-11-28T06:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_003100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001) may be associated with the M1.9 flare from Active Region 13901 (S12W25) with ID 2024-11-25T20:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-11-25T20:54Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M9.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-25T12:21:49Z
## Message ID: 20241125-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2024-11-25T07:24Z.
Flare peak time: 2024-11-25T07:42Z.
Flare intensity: M9.4 class.
Source region: N20E90 (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-25T07:41:12Z
## Message ID: 20241125-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2024-11-25T07:37Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-23T17:36:29Z
## Message ID: 20241123-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-23T11:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~623 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -63/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-23T11:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2024-11-24T08:36Z and the flank will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-25T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-23T11:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-23T16:09:05Z
## Message ID: 20241123-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-23T00:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~505 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 126/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-23T00:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-12-02T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-23T00:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241123_071000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241123_071000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241123_071000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241123_071000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241123_071000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241123_071000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T21:38:34Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-21T18:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1560 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 120/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-21T18:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2024-11-26T21:14Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-11-21T18:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241121_202300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241121_202300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241121_202300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241121_202300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241121_202300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241121_202300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2024-11-21T18:12:00-CME-001) is associated with SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-11-21T18:45:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241121-AL-003, 20241121-AL-004), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-11-21T19:10:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241121-AL-005, 20241121-AL-007), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-11-21T19:19:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20241121-AL-008), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-11-21T19:25:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20241121-AL-006).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO, GOES)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T20:13:14Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO and GOES. The flux of the >28.2 MeV protons channel at SOHO exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-11-21T19:19Z. The flux of > 10 MeV protons at GOES exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2024-11-21T19:25Z.
NASA spacecraft at L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-11-21T19:19:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-11-21T19:19:00-SEP-001) is associated with CME with ID 2024-11-21T18:12:00-CME-001 from behind the west limb which is under analysis.
This solar energetic particle event has been previously detected by GOES (> 100 MeV protons channel) (see notification 20241121-AL-004) and by STEREO A (see notification 20241121-AL-007).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T19:38:40Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-007
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-11-21T19:10Z.
NASA spacecraft between L1 and STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-11-21T19:10:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-11-21T19:10:00-SEP-001) is associated with the CME with ID 2024-11-21T18:12:00-CME-001 which is currently being analyzed. Updates for this event will be provided when available.
This Solar energetic particle event has also been detected by GOES (see notification 2024-11-21T18:45:00-SEP-001) and by SOHO (notification being prepared).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T19:35:15Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2024-11-21T19:25Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T19:26:43Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2024-11-21T19:10Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T19:07:58Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeds 1 pfu starting at 2024-11-21T18:45Z.
NASA Spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2024-11-21T18:45:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2024-11-21T18:45:00-SEP-001) is associated with a CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-11-21T18:36Z which is under analysis. Visual inspection of UV imagery of the Earth-facing disk indicates this event is likely beyond the western limb of the Earth-facing disk. Updates will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T18:53:57Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 100 MeV protons exceeds 1 pfu starting at 2024-11-21T18:45Z.
NASA Spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - modeled SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T18:47:54Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event forecasted near L1 orbit by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2024-11-21T19:23Z. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels may exceed 10^(-1) pfu/MeV within next few hours.
NASA spacecraft at orbits from L1 to STEREO A, including near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-11-21T18:09:31Z
## Message ID: 20241121-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-21T13:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~736 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -98/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-21T13:23:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2024-11-21T02:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~482 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -65/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2024-11-21T02:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, and Parker Solar Probe. The combined front of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2024-11-22T03:14Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-11-24T03:01Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2024-11-23T08:44Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-11-21T02:12:00-CME-001, 2024-11-21T13:23:00-CME-001):
