NOAK Observatory L02

Message Type: CME

Message ID: 20260219-AL-001

Issue Time: 2026-02-19T01:48Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-19T01:48:58Z
## Message ID: 20260219-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

O-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO.

Start time of the event: 2026-02-18T20:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~1033 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -60/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-02-18T20:36:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact) and BepiColombo (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juno at 2026-03-04T18:00Z and BepiColombo at 2026-02-19T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-02-18T20:36:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_235200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif

## Notes:

This CME event (2026-02-18T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with C2.2 flare from S07E60 with ID 2026-02-18T20:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-02-18T20:42Z.

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

URL: View Details

GIFs:

Message Type: Report

Message ID: 20260218-7D-001

Issue Time: 2026-02-18T18:39Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 11, 2026 - February 17, 2026
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-18T18:39:13Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-02-11T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-02-17T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20260218-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

Solar activity reached moderate levels during this reporting period with 6 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 6 C-type CMEs (see details below).

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:

CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus/minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-02-13T09:38Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-02-15T22:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20260213-AL-001).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2026-02-16T13:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-02-18T10:40Z, Kp index 6-8 (moderate to severe)
(see notifications 20260216-AL-004, 20260216-AL-007).
Ensemble: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-16_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO074/Detailed_results_20260216_132300_ncmes1_sims27_M2M-SWAO074.txt
2026-02-16T14:08Z NASA missions near Earth at 2026-02-19T11:00Z (minor impact), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20260216-AL-008).

It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:

CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus/minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2026-02-13T09:38Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-16T16:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-14T14:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-02-16T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260213-AL-001).
2026-02-15T12:24Z Europa Clipper at 2026-02-22T00:00Z (glancing blow), Juice at 2026-02-19T06:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-16T18:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2026-02-18T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260215-AL-001).
2026-02-16T04:24Z BepiColombo at 2026-02-16T20:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2026-02-18T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260216-AL-002).
2026-02-16T13:23Z BepiColombo at 2026-02-17T04:57Z, Juno at 2026-03-05T00:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-17T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20260216-AL-004, 20260216-AL-007).
2026-02-16T14:08Z BepiColombo at 2026-02-17T13:21Z (see notification 20260216-AL-008).

Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.00 occurred during the synoptic period of 2026-02-16T18:00Z to 2026-02-16T21:00Z (see notifications 20260216-AL-005, 20260216-AL-006). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-02-14T19:36Z which was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2026-02-14.

The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing from the previous reporting period starting at 2026-02-07T13:25Z (see notifications 20260207-AL-001, 20260207-AL-002, 20260209-AL-001, 20260211-AL-001, 20260212-AL-001, 20260213-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-02-04T14:20Z (see notification 20260204-AL-004) which was associated with the arrival of the C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-02-02T00:48Z. Additional enhancements may have been caused by the coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2026-02-05. The fluxes returned to background levels on 2026-02-15.

The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels briefly crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2026-02-16T15:50Z (see notifications 20260216-AL-001, 20260216-AL-003, 20260218-AL-002). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-02-14T19:36Z (see notification 20260214-AL-001) which was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2026-02-14. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.

The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.

Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.

##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2026-02-11 00:29:00 00:50:00 00:44:00 M1.1 N16W84 ( 14366 )
2026-02-11 00:50:00 00:59:00 00:57:00 M1.3 N16W85 ( 14366 )
2026-02-11 12:47:00 13:25:00 13:12:00 M1.4 N12W90 ( 14366 )
2026-02-12 02:29:00 02:50:00 02:40:00 M1.4 N14W99 ( 14366 )
2026-02-13 08:28:00 09:20:00 08:58:00 M1.0 N10W15 ( 14373 )
2026-02-16 04:03:00 05:00:00 04:35:00 M2.4 S10E90

CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-02-13T09:38Z ~800 C 16/31 28 STEREO A, GOES
2026-02-16T13:23Z ~1029 O -17/-3 26 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES

Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2026-02-12T13:26Z ~516 C 90/42 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-12T19:00Z ~900 C 90/42 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-14T13:36Z ~565 C -60/53 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-02-14T19:24Z ~553 C NONE(POS)/6 10 SOHO, GOES
2026-02-15T12:24Z ~1056 O 83/-28 26 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2026-02-16T03:36Z ~562 C 90/-48 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2026-02-16T04:24Z ~1447 O -112/13 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-02-18T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-02-24T23:59Z

Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently three numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. A yet-to-be numbered active region located beyond the SE limb around latitude S10 is expected to rotate onto the Earth-facing disk early in the outlook period and may be the source of notable flaring activity during the outlook period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There may be an enhancement in geomagnetic activity due to the arrivals of the O-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-02-16T13:23Z and the S-type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-02-16T14:08Z which are predicted to impact missions near Earth around 2026-02-18 and 2026-02-19. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES remained elevated through the end of the reporting period due to a threshold crossing starting at 2026-02-16T15:50Z (see notifications 20260216-AL-001, 20260216-AL-003, 20260218-AL-002) mentioned above, and may continue to be elevated during the outlook period due to the ongoing effects of a large coronal hole spanning longitudes of roughly W80 to E90. A separate coronal hole centered around N03E35 (as seen in available imagery from SDO/AIA 193) is expected to cross the central meridian starting on or around 2026-02-20.

## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

URL: View Details

Message Type: CME

Message ID: 20260218-AL-001

Issue Time: 2026-02-18T13:57Z

Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Mars, Parker Solar Probe, Psyche)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-18T13:57:58Z
## Message ID: 20260218-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.

Start time of the event: 2026-02-18T04:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~725 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 130/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-02-18T04:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice, Mars (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2026-02-22T16:32Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2026-02-22T10:00Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-02-20T00:00Z, and Psyche at 2026-02-23T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-02-18T04:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260218_093500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

## Notes:

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

URL: View Details

GIFs:

NOAK Observatory (L02)

Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)

NASA DONKI Notifications

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