Message ID: 20251009-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-10-09T16:14Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-09T16:14:32Z
## Message ID: 20251009-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-10-09T13:55Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-09-30, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 800 km/s. The solar wind speed at L1 is currently around 350 km/s (see notifications 20251001-AL-001, 20251001-AL-004, 20251003-AL-001, 20251005-AL-002, and 20251007-AL-001).
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-10-01T13:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This coronal hole high speed stream is also associated with geomagnetic storm with ID 2025-09-30T03:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20250930-AL-002 and 20250930-AL-003).
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20251008-7D-001
Issue Time: 2025-10-08T17:43Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for October 01, 2025 - October 07, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-08T17:43:14Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-10-01T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-10-07T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20251008-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 5 M-class flares, 5 C-type CMEs, and 1 O-type CME (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-01T10:24Z Juno at 2025-10-17T12:00Z (glancing blow) and Juice at 2025-10-03T04:42Z (see notification 20251001-AL-005).
2025-10-02T23:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-10-04T04:54Z, Mars at 2025-10-07T08:00Z (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-04T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251003-AL-002).
2025-10-04T14:08Z Juice at 2025-10-07T00:00Z (glancing blow).
2025-10-04T18:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-06T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251005-AL-003).
2025-10-04T22:36Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-10-06T11:00Z (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter at 2025-10-06T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20251005-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at strong levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 6.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.67 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-10-02T03:00Z to 2025-10-02T06:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the arrival of coronal hole high speed streams detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-09-27 as well as on 2025-09-30 in the previous reporting period (see notifications 20250930-AL-002, 20250930-AL-003).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-10-01T13:25Z (see notifications 20251001-AL-002, 20251001-AL-004, 20251003-AL-001, 20251005-AL-002, 20251007-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of coronal hole high speed streams detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-09-27 and 2025-09-30 in the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux levels remained enhanced throughout the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-10-01 02:15:00 02:37:00 02:26:00 M1.2 N07E20 ( 14232 )
2025-10-01 16:36:00 17:00:00 16:50:00 M1.2 N06E12 ( 14232 )
2025-10-02 02:00:00 02:11:00 02:09:00 M1.2 S09W77 ( 14226 )
2025-10-03 05:00:00 05:42:00 05:23:00 M1.5 N14W12 ( 14236 )
2025-10-03 14:19:00 15:15:00 14:36:00 M1.2 S14W77 ( 14238 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-10-01T10:24Z ~815 C 112/-14 30 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-02T23:36Z ~593 C -112/-21 41 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-04T14:08Z ~525 C 143/27 23 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-10-04T18:23Z ~739 C -80/-11 10 STEREO A
2025-10-04T22:36Z ~1058 O -48/31 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-10-07T15:12Z ~589 C 3/-54 10 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-10-08T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-10-14T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14232 (N03W85) produced multiple M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to produce similar levels of flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole seen crossing the central meridian starting on 2025-10-08 (as seen in available GOES SUVI 195 imagery) may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2025-10-11. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES mentioned above may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the continued effects of the coronal hole high speed streams detected by ACE at L1 on 2025-09-27 and 2025-09-30 (see notifications 20251001-AL-002, 20251001-AL-004, 20251003-AL-001, 20251005-AL-002, 20251007-AL-001).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
Message ID: 20251007-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-10-07T13:47Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-10-07T13:47:22Z
## Message ID: 20251007-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-10-07T12:30Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-09-30, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 800 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 430 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-10-01T13:25:00-RBE-001.
## Notes:
This coronal hole high speed stream is also associated with geomagnetic storm with ID 2025-09-30T03:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20250930-AL-002 and 20250930-AL-003)
URL: View Details