Ειδοποιήσεις από το σύστημα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης DONKI της NASA (διαστημικός καιρός, Ήλιος)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250311-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-03-11T17:00Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-11T17:00:25Z
## Message ID: 20250311-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-11T05:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1141 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 130/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-11T05:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-03-13T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-11T05:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-10T16:47:47Z
## Message ID: 20250310-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-10T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~541 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 110/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-10T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-03-12T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-10T11:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-10T12:07:30Z
## Message ID: 20250310-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-10T11:50Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 700 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 540 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-10T11:58:05Z
## Message ID: 20250310-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-10T11:50Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-09T12:37:40Z
## Message ID: 20250309-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-09T09:00Z to 2025-03-09T12:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-09T12:26:06Z
## Message ID: 20250309-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Space weather storm observed in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-09T03:00Z to 2025-03-09T06:00Z.
The storm is likely caused by the high speed stream starting on 2025-03-08.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-09T06:35:42Z
## Message ID: 20250309-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-03-09T03:00Z to 2025-03-09T06:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-08T18:04:18Z
## Message ID: 20250308-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant magnetic field disturbance detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2025-03-08T04:48Z.
The magnetic field enhancement is caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream with ID 2025-03-08T15:00:00-HSS-001. Some magnetospheric compression and a minor geomagnetic storm expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-08T14:22:11Z
## Message ID: 20250308-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-07T22:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1197 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 0/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter. The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-09T06:49Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-11T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-07T22:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-07T18:29:56Z
## Message ID: 20250307-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-07T17:35Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-02-26, reaching sustained maximum speeds of approximately 800 km/s, and the minor arrival of CME with ID 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250302-AL-001) which was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-04T17:10Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-07T17:42:28Z
## Message ID: 20250307-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-07T17:35Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-06T15:55:55Z
## Message ID: 20250306-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-06T03:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~687 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -57/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-06T03:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-03-06T20:57Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-06T03:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-05T21:25:11Z
## Message ID: 20250305-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-05T03:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~641 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -121/14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-05T03:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-03-07T06:27Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-05T03:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 26, 2025 - March 04, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-05T19:57:06Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-26T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-03-04T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250305-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 7 O-type CMEs and 12 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-26T06:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-02-28T02:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250226-AL-001).
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-03-01T18:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-03-04T16:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250302-AL-001).
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-03-04T17:10Z.
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-26T06:48Z STEREO A at 2025-02-27T21:08Z and Psyche at 2025-03-04T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250226-AL-001).
2025-02-26T15:12Z Juice at 2025-02-28T20:00Z (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-28T03:30Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250227-AL-001).
2025-02-26T16:12Z Europa Clipper at 2025-03-03T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-03-03T11:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-28T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250227-AL-002).
2025-02-27T07:23Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-28T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250227-AL-005).
2025-02-28T17:12Z Juice at 2025-03-02T03:42Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-03-01T22:26Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250228-AL-001).
2025-03-01T18:24Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-03T10:15Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-03-06T18:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-03-06T14:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-03-06T15:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250302-AL-001).
2025-03-04T21:25Z Juice at 2025-03-06T09:45Z and Psyche at 2025-03-12T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250305-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.67 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-02-27T09:00Z-12:00Z (see notifications 20250227-AL-003 and 20250227-AL-004). This was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-26 with additional influence from the prior arrival of a C-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-24T07:00Z detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2025-02-26T05:26Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-03-02T15:10Z (see notifications 20250302-AL-002, 20250302-AL-003, and 20250304-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-26, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 800 km/s. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the >15.8-39.8 MeV channel detected at SOHO were elevated but below their respective thresholds at the beginning of the reporting period due to a solar energetic particle event first detected in the previous reporting period at SOHO at 2025-02-25T00:11Z (see notification 20250225-AL-008) and GOES at 2025-02-25T00:20Z (see notifications 20250225-AL-002, 20250225-AL-003). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T03:05Z (see notifications 20250225-AL-005, 20250225-AL-006) and decreased to background levels on 2025-02-27. The protons at GOES decreased to background levels on 2025-02-28, and the protons at SOHO decreased to background levels on 2025-03-01. An additional solar energetic particle event was detected at STEREO A during the reporting period. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-03-01T03:22Z (see notifications 20250301-AL-001, 20250301-AL-002). This SEP event was associated with the O-type CME first detected in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-28T17:12Z. The protons at STEREO A decreased to background levels on 2025-03-02.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
None Observed
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-26T06:48Z ~1575 O 27/-3 11 SOHO
2025-03-01T18:24Z ~566 C -22/-37 38 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-26T15:00Z ~648 C 83/-54 27 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-26T15:12Z ~829 C 119/-9 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-26T16:12Z ~720 C -48/-27 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-27T07:23Z ~1105 O 144/42 30 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-02-28T17:12Z ~1177 O 121/9 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-28T17:24Z ~561 C -24/67 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-01T10:00Z ~970 C 1/41 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T04:00Z ~1044 O -54/-21 11 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T06:24Z ~974 C -55/-20 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T09:48Z ~1217 O -54/-23 13 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-02T10:24Z ~683 C 161/51 34 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-03T17:24Z ~845 C NONE(POS)/-66 27 SOHO
2025-03-04T03:48Z ~891 C -45/-67 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-04T04:48Z ~1151 O 104/-76 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-04T10:24Z ~537 C -42/-67 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-03-04T18:48Z ~989 C 90/-32 10 SOHO
2025-03-04T21:25Z ~1089 O 80/17 22 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-03-05T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-03-11T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 14011 (S19E08) and 14016 (S25E38) were the source of C-class flaring throughout the reporting period and may produce additional flaring during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N10E10 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting around 2025-03-09. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may continue to be elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the high speed stream from the above-mentioned coronal hole.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-05T02:13:02Z
## Message ID: 20250305-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-04T21:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~1089 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 80/17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-04T21:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and Juice. The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-03-12T12:00Z and the leading edge of the CME May reach Juice at 2025-03-06T09:45Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-04T21:25:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250305_002200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-04T17:43:40Z
## Message ID: 20250304-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux first crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-02T15:10Z. The most recent crossing of the 1000 pfu threshold was at 2025-03-03T18:00Z and the fluxes are currently elevated, but below the threshold.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-02-26, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 800 km/s (see notifications 20250302-AL-002 and 20250302-AL-003). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 450 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-02T15:25:45Z
## Message ID: 20250302-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-02T15:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2025-02-26, reaching sustained maximum speeds of approximately 800 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 510 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-02T15:18:02Z
## Message ID: 20250302-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-03-02T15:10Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-02T01:24:26Z
## Message ID: 20250302-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-03-01T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~566 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -22/-37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-03-03T10:15Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-06T18:00Z, Lucy at 2025-03-06T14:00Z, and Mars at 2025-03-06T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-03-04T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-01T14:18:01Z
## Message ID: 20250301-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-03-01T03:22Z.
NASA spacecraft at the orbits near STEREO Ahead can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-03-01T03:22:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-03-01T03:22:00-SEP-001) is likely associated with far-sided partial halo CME with ID 2025-02-28T17:12:00-CME-001 (see notification 20250228-AL-001) and may also be associated with the complex arrival signature seen at STEREO Ahead starting around 2025-02-28T19:32Z. Further analysis is still ongoing.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-03-01T03:31:27Z
## Message ID: 20250301-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-03-01T03:22Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-28T21:58:01Z
## Message ID: 20250228-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-28T17:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1177 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 121/9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-28T17:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-03-02T03:42Z and its flank will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-03-01T22:26Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-28T17:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-27T21:48:58Z
## Message ID: 20250227-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-27T07:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~1105 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 144/42 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-27T07:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-28T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-27T07:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-27T13:07:59Z
## Message ID: 20250227-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-02-27T09:00Z to 2025-02-27T12:00Z.
The storm is caused by a high speed stream starting on 2025-02-26.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-27T12:33:23Z
## Message ID: 20250227-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 5.67 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-02-27T09:00Z to 2025-02-27T12:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-27T03:21:58Z
## Message ID: 20250227-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-26T16:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~720 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -48/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-26T16:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-03-03T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-03-03T11:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-28T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-26T16:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-27T03:06:16Z
## Message ID: 20250227-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-26T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~829 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 119/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-26T15:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-02-28T20:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-28T03:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-26T15:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 19, 2025 - February 25, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-26T21:06:27Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-19T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-02-25T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250226-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 12 M-class flares, 4 O-type CMEs, and 15 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the flank of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-24T07:00Z would reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), with a possible Kp index of 5-7 (minor to strong) (see notification 20250224-AL-004).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-20T10:36Z Europa Clipper at 2025-02-25T04:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-02-25T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-22T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250220-AL-001).
2025-02-21T10:12Z Juice at 2025-02-23T03:21Z (see notifications 20250222-AL-001 and 20250222-AL-004).
2025-02-21T11:00Z Juice at 2025-02-23T03:21Z and Psyche at 2025-02-28T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250222-AL-002 and 20250222-AL-004).
2025-02-21T12:36Z Juice at 2025-02-23T03:21Z and Psyche at 2025-02-28T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250222-AL-003 and 20250222-AL-004).
2025-02-21T22:36Z Juice at 2025-02-24T06:00Z (minor impact)
2025-02-23T02:36Z Juice at 2025-02-25T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250223-AL-003).
2025-02-23T19:36Z Juice at 2025-02-25T07:34Z and STEREO A at 2025-02-26T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250224-AL-001).
2025-02-24T06:00Z Juice at 2025-02-25T14:18Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-25T15:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250224-AL-003).
2025-02-24T07:00Z Psyche at 2025-03-03T19:00Z (minor impact), STEREO A at 2025-02-26T14:40Z, Juice at 2025-02-26T18:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-26T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250224-AL-004 and 20250225-AL-009).
2025-02-24T21:24Z Juice at 2025-02-26T14:33Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-26T05:10Z (see notification 20250225-AL-004).
2025-02-25T12:38Z Psyche at 2025-03-04T12:00Z (minor impact), Juice at 2025-02-27T20:02Z, and STEREO A at 2025-02-27T19:53Z (see notification 20250225-AL-010).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.00 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-02-19T00:00Z-03:00Z. This minor enhancement in geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-18, which reached maximum sustained speeds of approximately 520 km/s.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T00:11Z (see notification 20250225-AL-008). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-02-25T00:20Z (see notifications 20250225-AL-002, 20250225-AL-003). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T03:05Z (see notifications 20250225-AL-005, 20250225-AL-006). This SEP event was likely associated with the M3.9 flare peaking at 2025-02-24T23:02Z from Active Region 13990 and the associated O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-02-24T21:24Z. The integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO subsided below their thresholds on 2025-02-25 and continued to decline towards background levels through the remainder of the reporting period. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons subsided below its threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV on 2025-02-26.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle event described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-24T07:00Z ~593 C 29/13 45 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-19T19:12Z ~887 C -100/62 36 SOHO
2025-02-20T02:00Z ~534 C NONE(POS)/39 14 SOHO
2025-02-20T06:24Z ~684 C -44/-72 10 SOHO
2025-02-20T10:36Z ~621 C -43/-13 22 SOHO
2025-02-21T10:12Z ~682 C 86/11 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-21T11:00Z ~766 C 90/10 25 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-21T12:36Z ~985 C 72/24 26 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-21T22:36Z ~565 C 90/33 21 SOHO
2025-02-23T02:36Z ~517 C 82/37 29 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-23T02:48Z ~1414 O 83/54 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-23T03:24Z ~524 C 83/51 16 SOHO
2025-02-23T13:48Z ~637 C NONE(POS)/-22 10 SOHO
2025-02-23T19:36Z ~1073 O 88/24 45 SOHO
2025-02-24T02:12Z ~632 C NONE(POS)/-48 16 SOHO
2025-02-24T06:00Z ~1421 O 110/24 41 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-24T21:24Z ~1239 O 131/-5 47 SOHO
2025-02-25T12:38Z ~627 C 53/-20 37 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-02-25T15:48Z ~741 C NONE(POS)/51 18 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-26T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-03-04T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the outlook period. There are currently numerous Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13998 (S14W62) and 14000 (N17W55) have been the source of M-class flaring and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period. Active Regions 13990 and 14001, which rotated off of the Earth facing disk on 2025-02-22 and 2025-02-24, respectively, may be a source of far-sided activity throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period. Minor enhancements in geomagnetic activity are possible on or around 2025-02-26 and 2025-02-28 due to the predicted glancing blows from the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-24T07:00Z mentioned above as well as the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-02-26T06:48Z (see notification 20250226-AL-001). Coronal holes centered around N10W10 and S30W10 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting around 2025-02-27. Additionally, the energetic electron flux levels at GOES may become elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the high speed streams from the above-mentioned coronal holes.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-26T14:49:57Z
## Message ID: 20250226-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-26T06:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1575 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 27/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-26T06:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Psyche (glancing blow) and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-02-27T21:08Z, and the flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-03-04T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-28T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-26T06:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T20:22:11Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-25T12:38Z.
Estimated speed: ~627 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 53/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-25T12:38:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact), Juice, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-03-04T12:00Z, Juice at 2025-02-27T20:02Z, and STEREO A at 2025-02-27T19:53Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-25T12:38:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_174900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_174900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_174900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-02-25T12:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.6 flare from AR 3998 (S15W55) with ID 2025-02-25T11:20:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-25T11:59Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Psyche, STEREO A, Juice, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T13:57:11Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250224-AL-004). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may affect Psyche. The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-03-03T19:00Z.
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect STEREO A, Juice (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-02-26T14:40Z and the flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-26T18:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also indicate that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-02-24T07:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~593 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250224_121100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.3 flare from Active Region 14000 (N17W21) with ID 2025-02-24T06:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T13:31:24Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T03:52Z.
NASA spacecraft at near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-02-25T03:52:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
Earlier solar energetic particle event was detected by GOES (see notifications 20250225-AL-002 and 20250225-AL-003) and STEREO A (see notifications 20250225-AL-005 and 20250225-AL-006). It was also predicted by the HESPERIA/REleASE SOHO/EPHIN model (see notification 20250225-AL-001).
This SEP event (2025-02-25T03:52:00-SEP-001) likely began during a data gap which occurred from 2025-02-25T00:12Z to 2025-02-25T03:52Z.
This SEP event (2025-02-25T03:52:00-SEP-001) is associated with the long-duration M3.9 flare from AR 13990 (S13W120) with ID 2025-02-24T21:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T23:02Z. An associated O-type CME with ID 2025-02-24T21:24:00-CME-001 is also likely associated with this SEP event (see notification 20250225-AL-004).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T03:42:25Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T03:05Z.
NASA spacecraft at the orbits near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-02-25T03:05:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-02-25T03:05:00-SEP-001) is associated with M3.9 flare from AR 13990 (S13W120) with ID 2025-02-24T21:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T23:02Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T03:18:11Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-005
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-02-25T03:05Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T02:51:29Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-24T21:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1086 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 120/-5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-24T21:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow), Juice, and Parker Solar Probe. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-26T14:33Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-26T05:10Z (plus minus 7 hours), and the flank of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-03-05T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-24T21:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250225_010700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-02-24T21:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.9 from flare AR 13990 (S13W120) with ID 2025-02-24T21:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T23:02Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T00:41:46Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-02-25T00:20Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-02-25T00:20:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-02-25T00:42:00-SEP-001) is associated with M3.9 flare from AR 13990 (S13W120) with ID 2025-02-24T21:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T23:02Z. There was simultaneous flaring from AR 14001.
Earlier solar energetic particle event was predicted by the HESPERIA REleASE model (see notification 20250225-AL-001).
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T00:26:50Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2025-02-25T00:20Z.
NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP Prediction
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-25T00:26:30Z
## Message ID: 20250225-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event forecasted near L1 orbit by the HESPERIA RELeASE model starting at 2025-02-25T00:42Z. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV within next few hours.
NASA spacecraft at the L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-02-25T00:42:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-02-25T00:42:00-SEP-001) is associated with M3.9 flare from AR 13990 (S13W120) with ID 2025-02-24T21:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T23:02Z. There was simultaneous flaring from AR 14001.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (STEREO A, Juice, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-24T22:29:07Z
## Message ID: 20250224-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-24T07:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~593 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 29/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect STEREO A, Juice (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-02-26T14:40Z (plus minus 7 hours), and the flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-26T18:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-26T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-26T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-02-24T07:00:00-CME-001) is associated with M3.3 flare from Active Region 1400 (N17W21) with ID 2025-02-24T06:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-24T07:02Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-24T15:08:57Z
## Message ID: 20250224-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-24T06:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~1421 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 110/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-24T06:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-25T14:18Z and the flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-25T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-24T06:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-24T02:16:28Z
## Message ID: 20250224-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR/ACE at L1 at 2025-02-23T21:20Z.
The recent magnetic field enhancement may be caused by a CME with ID 2025-02-20T00:00:00-CME-001. Some magnetospheric compression and increases in geomagnetic activity, up to minor storm conditions, are expected.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-24T00:26:17Z
## Message ID: 20250224-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-23T19:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1073 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 88/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-23T19:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-25T07:34Z and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-02-26T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-23T19:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-02-23T19:36:00-CME-001) is associated with X2.0 flare from Active Region 14001 (N25W87) with ID 2025-02-23T19:22:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-23T19:27Z (see notifications 20250223-AL-001, 20250223-AL-002).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-23T22:55:29Z
## Message ID: 20250223-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-23T02:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~517 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 29 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 82/37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-23T02:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-25T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-23T02:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-02-23T02:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.9 flare from Active Region 14001 (N25W82) with ID 2025-02-23T02:00:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-23T02:13Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X2.0 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-23T19:41:39Z
## Message ID: 20250223-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-02-23T19:22Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-02-23T19:27Z.
Flare intensity: X2.0 class.
Source region: N24W87 (Active Region 14001) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-23T19:30:00Z
## Message ID: 20250223-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-02-23T19:25Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Psyche, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-22T20:11:55Z
## Message ID: 20250222-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-02-21T10:12:00-CME-001, 2025-02-21T11:00:00-CME-001, and 2025-02-21T12:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250222-AL-001, 20250222-AL-002, and 20250222-AL-003). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and Juice. The combined leading edge of all three CMEs will reach Juice at 2025-02-23T03:21Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined flanks of the CMEs with IDs 2025-02-21T11:00:00-CME-001 and 2025-02-21T12:36:00-CME-001 may reach Psyche at 2025-02-28T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are (C-type):
1: Start time of the event: 2025-02-21T10:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~682 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 86/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-21T10:12:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-02-21T11:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~766 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-21T11:00:00-CME-001
3: Start time of the event: 2025-02-21T12:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~985 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 72/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-21T12:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-02-21T10:12:00-CME-001, 2025-02-21T11:00:00-CME-001, 2025-02-21T12:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-22T03:19:18Z
## Message ID: 20250222-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-21T12:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~985 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 72/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-21T12:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and Juice. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-23T08:10Z and the flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-02-28T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-21T12:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_160600_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-22T02:32:28Z
## Message ID: 20250222-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-21T11:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~766 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 90/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-21T11:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and Juice. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-23T05:55Z and the flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-03-01T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-21T11:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-22T02:21:17Z
## Message ID: 20250222-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-21T10:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~682 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 86/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-21T10:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-02-23T09:54Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-21T10:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250221_153300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Mars, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-20T16:48:10Z
## Message ID: 20250220-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-20T10:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~621 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -43/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-20T10:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-02-25T04:00Z, Mars at 2025-02-25T04:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-22T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-20T10:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 12, 2025 - February 18, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-19T21:59:40Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-12T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-02-18T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250219-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 5 M-class flares and 13 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-13T15:23Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-02-16T04:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250214-AL-001)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-02-14T08:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-02-16T16:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250214-AL-002)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-02-14T21:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-02-17T12:00Z, Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250215-AL-001 and 20250215-AL-003)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-02-15T01:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-02-17T12:00Z, Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20250215-AL-003)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-13T15:23Z Europa Clipper at 2025-02-18T00:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-02-17T12:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-02-18T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-15T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250214-AL-001).
2025-02-14T08:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T00:30Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-18T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-02-17T17:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-02-18T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250214-AL-002).
2025-02-14T21:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T19:51Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-19T06:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2025-02-19T11:00Z (minor impact), and Lucy at 2025-02-18T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250215-AL-001, 20250215-AL-003).
2025-02-15T01:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T19:51Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-19T06:00Z (minor impact), Mars at 2025-02-19T11:00Z (minor impact), and Lucy at 2025-02-18T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250215-AL-003).
2025-02-15T13:25Z BepiColombo at 2025-02-16T10:00Z (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-17T09:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250215-AL-004).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 5.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.00 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-02-15T09:00Z-12:00Z. This minor enhancement of geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-13, which reached maximum sustained speeds of approximately 640 km/s.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu throughout the reporting period. This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-02-11 with additional influences from the subsequent coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-02-16 (see notifications 20250213-AL-001, 20250215-AL-002, and 20250217-AL-001). These coronal hole high speed streams reached maximum sustained speeds between approximately 600-640 km/s.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-13T15:23Z ~546 C -10/23 24 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-02-14T08:48Z ~701 C -32/-16 31 SOHO
2025-02-14T21:48Z ~507 C -33/4 17 SOHO
2025-02-15T01:36Z ~722 C -31/10 20 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-12T02:48Z ~606 C -78/13 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-12T21:48Z ~554 C NONE(POS)/11 15 SOHO
2025-02-13T01:36Z ~515 C NONE(POS)/21 11 SOHO
2025-02-13T17:36Z ~552 C NONE(POS)/-57 16 SOHO
2025-02-13T21:12Z ~531 C -54/19 10 SOHO
2025-02-14T14:48Z ~592 C -43/-34 10 SOHO
2025-02-14T17:48Z ~628 C NONE(POS)/-34 13 SOHO
2025-02-15T13:25Z ~820 C 173/-43 37 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-15T20:36Z ~605 C 85/39 22 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-19T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-02-25T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13992 (approximately S06W99) has been the source of recent C-class flaring and may continue to be the source of far-sided activity as it has rotated off of the Earth-facing disk on 2025-02-19. Active Region 13990 (S09W44) has also been the source of recent C-class flaring and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels throughout the outlook period. A small coronal hole currently centered around N15E15 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA) may be geoeffective starting on or around 2025-02-24.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-17T16:34:01Z
## Message ID: 20250217-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-02-17T11:45Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-02-15T11:25Z are caused by a high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-02-13 (see notification 20250215-AL-002). This high speed stream was preceded by another high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-02-09. The current high speed stream reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 640 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 460 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-15T21:45:06Z
## Message ID: 20250215-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-15T13:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~820 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 173/-43 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-15T13:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-02-16T10:00Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-17T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-15T13:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Mars, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-15T20:33:19Z
## Message ID: 20250215-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CME with ID 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250215-AL-001), now simulated with CME with ID 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001. Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (minor impact), Mars (minor impact), and Lucy (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T19:51Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-19T06:00Z and Mars at 2025-02-19T11:00Z, and the combined flank may reach Lucy at 2025-02-18T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the combined front of the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-17T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-02-14T21:48Z (parameters have not been updated)
Estimated speed: ~507 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -33/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-02-15T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~722 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -31/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001, 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001):
The CME with ID 2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001 is associated with C1.9 flare with ID 2025-02-15T00:50:00-FLR-001 from an unnumbered region (N11E31) which peaked at 2025-02-15T01:06Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-15T14:53:12Z
## Message ID: 20250215-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-02-15T11:25Z; the elevated energetic electron flux levels have been observed since 2025-02-11T13:45Z.
The currently elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2025-02-13; this is a second high speed stream, preceded by the one that arrived on 2025-02-09. The current high speed stream has so far reached the sustained speeds of approximately 630 km/s, as observed at L1.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-15T04:01:35Z
## Message ID: 20250215-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-14T21:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~507 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -33/4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (minor impact), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T20:00Z, and the flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-02-19T06:00Z, and Mars at 2025-02-19T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-14T21:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-14T14:31:25Z
## Message ID: 20250214-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-14T08:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~701 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -32/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-16T00:30Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-18T03:00Z, Lucy at 2025-02-17T17:00Z, and Mars at 2025-02-18T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-16T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001) is likely associated with a C6.6 flare from Active Region 13994 (S21E06) with ID 2025-02-14T07:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-14T07:45Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-14T02:44:13Z
## Message ID: 20250214-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-13T15:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~546 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -10/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-13T15:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-02-18T00:00Z, Lucy at 2025-02-17T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-02-18T04:00Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-15T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-16T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-13T15:23:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-13T15:39:00Z
## Message ID: 20250213-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-02-13T14:00Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-02-11T13:45Z are caused by a high speed stream starting on 2025-02-09, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 600 km/s. The solar wind speed observed by ACE at L1 is currently around 450 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for February 05, 2025 - February 11, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-12T19:56:54Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-05T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-02-11T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250212-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate level during this reporting period with 12 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 12 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-02-05T02:12Z STEREO A at 2025-02-08T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250205-AL-001).
2025-02-05T11:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-02-08T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250205-AL-002).
2025-02-05T17:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-07T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250205-AL-003).
2025-02-06T02:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-02-06T20:34Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-02-07T16:50Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-07T13:59Z (see notification 20250206-AL-003).
2025-02-07T23:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-02-10T10:27Z (see notification 20250208-AL-001).
2025-02-11T18:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-02-14T18:11Z and Juno at 2025-02-26T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250212-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.67 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 4.67 occurred during the synoptic periods 2025-02-09T18:00Z-21:00Z and 2025-02-10T00:00Z-03:00Z. This minor enhancement of geomagnetic activity was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-09. The maximum sustained solar wind speed observed by DSCOVR at L1 reached approximately 600 km/s on 2025-02-10.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-02-11T13:45Z (see notifications 20250211-AL-001 and 20250211-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1 on 2025-02-09, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 600 km/s. The energetic electron flux levels remain elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at or near background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-02-05T02:12Z ~708 C 30/-42 30 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-05T11:00Z ~505 C -90/13 22 SOHO
2025-02-05T17:12Z ~554 C -148/-24 11 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-06T02:48Z ~1254 O -144/-18 42 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-06T12:00Z ~811 C 141/68 38 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-06T15:48Z ~554 C NONE(POS)/-82 15 SOHO
2025-02-07T03:12Z ~567 C -141/-63 23 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-07T23:36Z ~708 C -126/-4 23 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-08T13:25Z ~602 C 127/-31 14 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-09T16:24Z ~702 C NONE(POS)/50 22 SOHO
2025-02-10T06:00Z ~570 C -127/-40 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-11T06:36Z ~544 C -76/10 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-02-11T18:24Z ~565 C -90/-3 36 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-02-12T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-02-18T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13986 (N06W25), 13990 (S09E44), 13991 (S12E60), and 13992 (S06W06) have been the source of recent C-class flaring and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and minor levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole structure, currently spanning longitudes W30 to E30 and latitudes S10 to S35, started crossing the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk on 2025-02-10 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA). This coronal hole structure may be geoeffective throughout the outlook period starting on or around 2025-02-14. Additionally, the energetic electron flux levels at GOES may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period and be influenced by the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream associated with the aforementioned coronal hole structure.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-12T03:39:51Z
## Message ID: 20250212-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-11T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~565 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -90/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-11T18:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-02-14T18:11Z (plus minus 7 hours), and the flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-02-26T03:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-11T18:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250212_003400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-02-11T18:24:00-CME-001) is associated with C7.2 flare (S09E89) with ID 2025-02-11T18:05:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-02-11T18:25Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-11T14:05:17Z
## Message ID: 20250211-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-02-11T13:45Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by a high speed stream starting on 2025-02-09, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 600 km/s. The solar wind speed observed by ACE at L1 is currently around 525 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-11T13:51:53Z
## Message ID: 20250211-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-02-11T13:45Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
