Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: IPS
Message ID: 20250703-AL-001
Issue Time: 2025-07-03T11:29Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Interplanetary Shock
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-03T11:29:35Z
## Message ID: 20250703-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2025-07-03T05:38Z.
The shock may be caused by the arrival of a CME: 2025-06-28T21:00Z, however this event is still being analyzed. Some magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm possible.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for June 25, 2025 - July 01, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-02T20:10:32Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-06-25T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-07-01T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250702-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at low levels during this reporting period. There were 2 O-type CMEs and 12 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CME was predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
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2025-06-28T21:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-07-01T17:42Z, Kp index 5-7 (minor to strong)
(see notifications 20250629-AL-001, 20250630-AL-002).
Ensemble results: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/Detailed_results_20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082.txt
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-06-25T06:36Z Juice at 2025-06-28T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250625-AL-004).
2025-06-26T13:38Z Juice at 2025-06-29T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250626-AL-001).
2025-06-27T12:12Z Juice at 2025-06-29T20:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-06-29T14:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250627-AL-002).
2025-06-28T21:00Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-07-01T03:30Z, STEREO A at 2025-07-01T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250629-AL-001, 20250630-AL-002).
2025-06-29T12:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-30T23:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-07-08T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250629-AL-003, 20250629-AL-004).
2025-06-29T15:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-02T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250630-AL-001).
2025-06-30T15:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-03T06:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250701-AL-002).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 5.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-06-27T00:00Z-03:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-06-25T00:59Z which was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-06-25 (see notification 20250625-AL-003).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt remained elevated above the threshold level of 1000 pfu due to a threshold crossing which occurred during the previous reporting period (see notifications 20250621-AL-004, 20250621-AL-005, 20250623-AL-001, 20250625-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-06-21T14:30Z was associated with the arrival at L1 detected by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-06-19T07:00Z which was likely associated with the combined arrival of the C-type and O-type CMEs from 2025-06-15 in the previous reporting period. The energetic electron flux levels returned to background levels later on 2025-06-25. The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels exceeded the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2025-06-27T11:40Z (see notifications 20250627-AL-001, 20250629-AL-002, 20250701-AL-001). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-06-25. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
None Observed
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-06-28T21:00Z ~589 C 9/5 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-06-25T04:24Z ~915 C 148/39 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-06-25T06:36Z ~1090 O 110/-14 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-25T14:23Z ~525 C 87/46 15 STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-25T21:12Z ~501 C -9/-32 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-26T13:38Z ~940 C 117/-10 16 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-06-26T17:53Z ~772 C 127/-10 17 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-06-27T12:12Z ~1000 O 59/43 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-29T12:12Z ~511 C -41/10 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-06-29T15:36Z ~504 C 141/-3 35 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-29T19:00Z ~562 C 117/61 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-29T23:12Z ~535 C NONE(POS)/17 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-06-30T15:48Z ~619 C 128/-16 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-30T21:12Z ~568 C 134/38 19 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-07-02T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-07-08T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently ten Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14129 (N02E15) has produced low-level C-class flaring during the reporting period and may continue to produce flaring activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole along the southern hemisphere of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from approximately longitudes E45 to W40 (as seen in available EUV imagery from SDO/AIA) may reach geoeffective longitudes starting around 2025-07-03. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may remain elevated above background levels during the beginning of the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-01T17:26:17Z
## Message ID: 20250701-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-30T15:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~619 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 17 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 128/-16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-30T15:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-03T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-30T15:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-01T13:37:54Z
## Message ID: 20250701-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu starting at 2025-07-01T08:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-06-27T11:40Z are caused by a coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-06-25, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 775 km/s (see notifications 20250627-AL-001 and 20250629-AL-002). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 490 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-30T11:30:12Z
## Message ID: 20250630-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250629-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2025-07-01T05:31Z and 2025-07-01T09:45Z (average arrival 2025-07-01T08:03Z) for 25% of simulations.
Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-07-01T13:29Z and 2025-07-01T22:42Z (average arrival 2025-07-01T18:01Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 73% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082_STA_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is also predicted impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-07-01T03:30Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250629-AL-001).
This CME event (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001) is associated with C4.0 flare from Active Region 14126 (N07W22) with ID 2025-06-28T19:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z.
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-06-29_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082/Detailed_results_20250628_210000_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA082.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-06-30T00:43:04Z
## Message ID: 20250630-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-29T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~504 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 141/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-29T15:36:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-29T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~358 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 129/40 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-29T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the CMEs may impact Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-07-02T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-06-29T11:36:00-CME-001, 2025-06-29T15:36:00-CME-001):
