Alerts from NASA's DONKI Early Warning System (Space Weather, Sun)
NASA DONKI Notifications
NASA DONKI Notifications
Message Type: FLR
Message ID: 20250203-AL-005
Issue Time: 2025-02-03T13:29Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.1 Flare
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-03T13:29:27Z
## Message ID: 20250203-AL-005
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-02-03T13:07Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-02-03T13:18Z.
Flare intensity: M6.1 class.
Source region: N05E16 (Active Region 13981) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-03T13:20:34Z
## Message ID: 20250203-AL-004
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-02-03T13:16Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M8.8 Flare
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-03T04:14:22Z
## Message ID: 20250203-AL-003
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-02-03T03:52Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-02-03T03:58Z.
Flare intensity: M8.8 class.
Source region: N05E20 (Active Region 13981) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, OSIRIS-APEX)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-03T04:09:09Z
## Message ID: 20250203-AL-002
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-02T22:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~878 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 166/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-02T22:00:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-02T21:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~801 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 162/-32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-02T21:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe (minor impact), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-02-03T19:13Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-04T16:00Z. The combined flank of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-02-05T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-02-02T22:00:00-CME-001, 2025-02-02T21:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-03T04:00:26Z
## Message ID: 20250203-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-02-03T03:56Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-02T16:54:37Z
## Message ID: 20250202-AL-005
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-02-02T05:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1281 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 168/-39 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-02-02T05:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-02-02T22:26Z and the flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-02-03T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-02-02T05:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-02T15:53:28Z
## Message ID: 20250202-AL-004
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-02-02T15:30Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by a coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2025-01-31, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 700 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 550 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-02T15:39:51Z
## Message ID: 20250202-AL-003
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-02-02T15:30Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M5.1 Flare
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-02T14:19:36Z
## Message ID: 20250202-AL-002
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-02-02T13:58Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-02-02T14:04Z.
Flare intensity: M5.1 class.
Source region: N20E03 (Active Region 13977) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-02T14:08:15Z
## Message ID: 20250202-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-02-02T14:04Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (ensemble) (Mars, missions near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-02-01T15:34:39Z
## Message ID: 20250201-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Ensemble modeling update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250131-AL-001 and 20250131-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:
- Mars between about 2025-02-02T18:26Z and 2025-02-03T05:40Z (average arrival 2025-02-03T00:42Z) for 66% of simulations.
Additionally the CMEs are estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-02-01T12:32Z and 2025-02-02T02:13Z (average arrival 2025-02-01T17:55Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 66% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044_Mars_stack.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact to Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-01T14:48Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-02-03T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-02-02T20:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-02-03T14:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see previous notification 20250131-AL-001).
This CME event (2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact to Europa Clipper at 2025-02-02T15:16Z, Lucy at 2025-02-02T10:29Z, Mars at 2025-02-02T22:53Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-01T09:07Z, and STEREO A at 2025-02-01T23:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see previous notification 20250131-AL-003).
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M SWAO is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.
For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-01-31_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044/Detailed_results_20250130_161200_ncmes2_sims24_M2M-ENLIL044.txt
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.7 Flare
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-31T14:27:22Z
## Message ID: 20250131-AL-005
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-31T13:40Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-31T14:06Z.
Flare intensity: M6.7 class.
Source region: N14E43 (Active Region 13978) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-31T14:03:37Z
## Message ID: 20250131-AL-004
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-31T13:58Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-31T02:58:50Z
## Message ID: 20250131-AL-003
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-30T17:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~892 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -20/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-02-02T15:16Z, Lucy at 2025-02-02T10:29Z, Mars at 2025-02-02T22:53Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-01T09:07Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach and STEREO A at 2025-02-01T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-01T15:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-31T02:29:48Z
## Message ID: 20250131-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-30T16:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~777 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 23 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -23/-21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-02-01T14:48Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Europa Clipper at 2025-02-03T06:00Z, Lucy at 2025-02-02T20:00Z, and Mars at 2025-02-03T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-02-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Juice)
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-30T14:39:36Z
## Message ID: 20250130-AL-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-30T11:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~769 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 122/-23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-30T11:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-31T10:00Z and Juice at 2025-02-01T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-30T11:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 22, 2025 - January 28, 2025
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## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-29T21:50:28Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-22T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-01-28T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250129-7D-001
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## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 4 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, 16 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-22T04:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-01-23T00:10Z and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-24T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250122-AL-003)
2025-01-22T11:36Z Europa Clipper at 2025-01-27T04:31Z, Lucy at 2025-01-26T08:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-25T11:40Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-24T23:06Z, and Mars at 2025-01-17T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250122-AL-004)
2025-01-23T03:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-25T14:15Z (see notification 20250123-AL-001)
2025-01-24T12:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-27T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250124-AL-001)
2025-01-25T03:36Z Juice at 2025-01-26T15:30Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-28T12:00Z (glancing blow), and Psyche at 2025-01-31T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250126-AL-001)
2025-01-25T17:36Z Juice at 2025-01-27T13:13Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-29T04:00Z (glancing blow), and Psyche at 2025-02-01T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250126-AL-002)
2025-01-26T01:25Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-27T21:04Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-29T18:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-29T14:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-30T10:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2025-02-07T05:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250126-AL-003)
2025-01-26T19:12Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-28T18:00Z (glancing blow) and Juno at 2025-02-07T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250127-AL-001)
2025-01-27T11:00Z Juice at 2025-01-29T16:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250127-AL-004)
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=3.67 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above background levels, crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu multiple times through 2025-01-27 (see notifications 20250127-AL-002 and 20250127-AL-003). The elevation in energetic electron flux levels was likely caused in response to continuing effects of coronal hole high speed streams detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-01-16 and 2025-01-19 during previous reporting periods. These coronal hole high speed streams reached maximum sustained speeds between approximately 600 to 650 km/s. The energetic electron flux levels subsided to background levels starting on 2025-01-27 and remained at background levels through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low to moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-22T11:36Z ~626 C 9/-27 38 SOHO, STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-22T04:36Z ~1160 O 134/-25 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-22T08:12Z ~577 C 180/73 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-22T08:36Z ~578 C -164/-59 32 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-22T09:12Z ~503 C -169/62 11 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-22T17:00Z ~563 C NONE(POS)/-85 28 SOHO
2025-01-22T17:12Z ~613 C NONE(POS)/-24 37 SOHO
2025-01-22T17:24Z ~666 C NONE(POS)/-10 15 SOHO
2025-01-23T02:24Z ~858 C -141/-52 28 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-23T03:24Z ~770 C -107/-15 30 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-24T12:24Z ~656 C -109/-42 45 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-24T21:00Z ~528 C NONE(POS)/-17 15 SOHO
2025-01-25T03:36Z ~817 C 64/-31 25 SOHO
2025-01-25T17:36Z ~543 C 75/-12 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-26T01:25Z ~1148 O -51/-19 30 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-26T10:12Z ~805 C -55/-21 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-26T19:12Z ~862 C -48/-28 27 SOHO
2025-01-27T11:00Z ~627 C 97/-13 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-28T20:12Z ~1117 O -75/-21 10 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-29T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-02-04T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently six numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13976 (~N13E59) and 13977 (~N19E57) were responsible for a few significant solar flares during the reporting period and may be the source of continued flaring activity during the outlook period as they continue to traverse the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between minor to moderate levels during the outlook period. A large equatorial coronal hole currently centered near N03W03 and another structure centered near S22W00 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI and SDO AIA) are likely to become geoeffective on or around 2024-01-31. Additionally, the energetic electron flux levels at GOES may become elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the high-speed streams from the above-mentioned coronal holes.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-27T21:17:12Z
## Message ID: 20250127-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-27T11:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~627 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 97/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-27T11:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-01-29T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-27T11:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-27T15:00:41Z
## Message ID: 20250127-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-01-27T14:15Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by continuing effects of the coronal hole high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-01-19 and reached a maximum speed of approximately 620 km/s, which was preceded by a high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-01-16 and reached a maximum speed of approximately 600 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 290 km/s. Analysis is ongoing.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-27T14:22:25Z
## Message ID: 20250127-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-01-27T14:15Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-27T02:49:53Z
## Message ID: 20250127-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-26T19:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~862 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -48/-28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-26T19:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (glancing blow) and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-02-07T18:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-28T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-26T19:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250126_230900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-26T21:00:16Z
## Message ID: 20250126-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-26T01:25Z.
Estimated speed: ~1148 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -51/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juno (minor impact), Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-02-07T05:00Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-27T21:04Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-29T18:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-29T14:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-30T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-26T02:58:48Z
## Message ID: 20250126-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-25T17:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~543 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 75/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-25T17:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow), Juice, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-01-27T13:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-02-01T12:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-29T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-25T17:36:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250125_234800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250125_234800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250125_234800_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-25T17:36:00-CME-001) is associated with a C5.4 flare from Active Region 13961 (S12W80) with ID 2025-01-25T17:16:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-25T17:27Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-26T02:42:11Z
## Message ID: 20250126-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-25T03:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~817 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 64/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-25T03:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (minor impact), Juice, and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-01-31T12:00Z and Juice at 2025-01-26T15:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach STEREO A at 2025-01-28T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-25T03:36:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250125_080700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250125_080700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250125_080700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-25T03:36:00-CME-001) is associated with a C3.7 flare from Active Region 13961 (S11W70) with ID 2025-01-25T02:52:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-25T03:00Z and a C4.6 flare from Active Region 13961 (S11W70) with ID 2025-01-25T03:16:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-25T03:23Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-24T15:41:08Z
## Message ID: 20250124-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-24T12:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~656 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -109/-42 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-24T12:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-27T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-24T12:24:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-01-24T12:24:00-CME-001) is associated with a C9.8 flare from a currently unnumbered Active Region beyond the southeast limb with ID 2025-01-24T11:43:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-24T12:21Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-23T13:49:30Z
## Message ID: 20250123-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-23T03:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~770 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/-15 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-23T03:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact OSIRIS-APEX. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-25T14:15Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-23T03:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 15, 2025 - January 21, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-22T21:28:45Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-15T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-01-21T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250122-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 13 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 16 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-17T16:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-20T12:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notification 20250117-AL-004)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-01-18T02:00Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-20T20:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250118-AL-002, 20250118-AL-003)
The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1.
2025-01-21T10:53Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-24T06:54Z, Kp index 4-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notification 20250121-AL-001).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-17T15:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-19T10:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250117-AL-003).
2025-01-18T01:36Z Juice at 2025-01-19T16:30Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-01-20T09:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250118-AL-001, 20250118-AL-003).
2025-01-18T02:00Z Europa Clipper at 2025-01-22T00:30Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-21T11:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-22T15:30Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-01-20T09:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250118-AL-002, 20250118-AL-003).
2025-01-19T00:36Z Juice at 2025-01-20T18:00Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-21T18:00Z (see notification 20250119-AL-001).
2025-01-21T08:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-01-22T06:00Z.
2025-01-21T09:12Z Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-23T01:50Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-23T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250122-AL-001).
2025-01-21T10:53Z Lucy at 2025-01-25T01:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-24T03:08Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-25T18:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-26T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250121-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.33 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above background levels throughout the first half of the reporting period and later crossed the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-01-20T13:30Z. These energetic electron flux levels remained elevated at or near threshold levels through the end of the reporting period (see notifications 20250120-AL-001, 20250120-AL-002, and 20250122-AL-002). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-01-16 with additional influences from the subsequent coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-01-19. These coronal hole high speed streams reached maximum sustained speeds between approximately 600-650 km/s.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low to moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-17T16:24Z ~741 C 7/20 10 SOHO
2025-01-18T02:00Z ~530 C 14/26 24 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-21T10:53Z ~646 C -23/-31 37 STEREO A
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-15T21:12Z ~596 C -116/-54 15 SOHO
2025-01-16T22:36Z ~732 C 75/-64 27 SOHO
2025-01-17T15:12Z ~700 C -169/-28 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-18T01:36Z ~915 C 27/32 20 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-18T15:12Z ~623 C 24/33 10 SOHO
2025-01-18T23:24Z ~802 C NONE(POS)/-39 23 SOHO
2025-01-19T00:36Z ~767 C 58/-40 26 SOHO
2025-01-19T01:37Z ~555 C NONE(POS)/-43 18 SOHO
2025-01-19T03:24Z ~501 C 112/-42 21 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-20T09:36Z ~692 C 99/-27 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-21T03:48Z ~752 C -170/71 31 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-21T05:00Z ~548 C 146/-73 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-21T08:48Z ~1129 O 127/-27 15 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-21T09:12Z ~650 C -166/-13 45 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-22T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-01-28T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between minor and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13964 (~N06W100) was responsible for the majority of flaring activity during the reporting period before rotating off the Earth-facing disk on 2025-01-21. This region may be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period. Active Regions 13961 (S10W33) and 13967 (S17E00) were responsible for two of the M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit similar flaring activity as they continue to traverse the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between below minor to moderate levels during the outlook period. There may be an enhancement in geomagnetic activity early in the outlook period beginning on or around 2025-01-24 and 2025-01-25 due to the anticipated arrivals of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-21T10:53Z and the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-22T11:36Z (see notifications 20250121-AL-001 and 20250122-AL-004). Additionally, the > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu on 2025-01-22 and may continue to be elevated throughout the beginning of the outlook period (see notification 20250122-AL-002).
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-22T20:24:08Z
## Message ID: 20250122-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-22T11:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~626 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 9/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper, Lucy, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Mars (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-27T04:31Z, Lucy at 2025-01-26T08:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-25T11:40Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-24T23:06Z, and Mars at 2025-01-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-25T10:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.3 flare from Active Region 3961 (S15W17) with ID 2025-01-22T10:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-22T11:08Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-22T19:23:06Z
## Message ID: 20250122-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-22T04:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~1160 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 21 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 134/-25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-22T04:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-23T00:10Z and the flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-24T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-22T04:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-22T13:53:50Z
## Message ID: 20250122-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-01-22T13:25Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-01-20T13:30Z are caused by a high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-01-16 and a high speed stream which arrived at L1 on 2025-01-19, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 650 km/s (see notifications 20250120-AL-001 and 20250120-AL-0020). The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 450 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, OSIRIS-APEX)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-22T01:05:10Z
## Message ID: 20250122-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-21T09:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~650 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -166/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-21T09:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-23T01:50Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-01-23T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-21T09:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-21T21:55:44Z
## Message ID: 20250121-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-21T10:53Z.
Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -23/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Solar Orbiter, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2025-01-25T01:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-24T03:08Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-01-25T18:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-26T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-24T06:54Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-20T13:59:29Z
## Message ID: 20250120-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-01-20T13:30Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream arriving on 2025-01-19 and reaching a maximum speed of approximately 620 km/s, which was preceded by a high speed stream arriving on 2025-01-16 and reaching a maximum speed of approximately 600 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 600 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-20T13:36:51Z
## Message ID: 20250120-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-01-20T13:30Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-19T21:14:02Z
## Message ID: 20250119-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-19T00:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~767 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 58/-40 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-19T00:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-01-20T18:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-21T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-19T00:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-18T21:51:41Z
## Message ID: 20250118-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20250118-AL-001 & 20250118-AL-002).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that one or both of the CMEs may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow) (see note). The flank of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z will reach Juice at 2025-01-19T16:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T02:00Z will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-22T00:30Z, Lucy at 2025-01-21T11:00Z, and Mars at 2025-01-22T15:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined flank of both CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2025-01-20T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T02:00Z may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-20T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are:
1: Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~915 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 27/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~530 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 14/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001, 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with the M1.7 flare from Active Region 13964 (N06W34) with ID 2025-01-18T00:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-18T00:58Z.
Based on previous simulations (see notifications 20250118-AL-001 and 20250118-AL-002) the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T01:36Z is solely expected to have an impact at Juice. The CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-01-18T02:00Z is solely expected to have an impact at missions near Earth, Europa Clipper, Lucy, and Mars. Both CMEs are expected to have an impact at STEREO A.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-18T21:34:06Z
## Message ID: 20250118-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~530 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 14/26 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2025-01-22T02:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-21T12:00Z, Mars at 2025-01-22T16:00Z, and STEREO A at 2025-01-20T15:30Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-20T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-18T02:00:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-18T21:33:50Z
## Message ID: 20250118-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-18T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~915 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 27/32 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-01-19T16:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-20T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001):
This CME event (2025-01-18T01:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.7 flare from Active Region 13964 (N06W34) with ID 2025-01-18T00:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-18T00:58Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T21:06:13Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-17T16:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~741 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 7/20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME might have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-20T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-17T16:24:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T20:01:04Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-17T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~700 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -169/-28 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-17T15:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2025-01-19T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-17T15:12:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M7.4 Flare
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T13:56:41Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-01-17T13:24Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-01-17T13:35Z.
Flare intensity: M7.4 class.
Source region: N07W30 (Active Region 13964) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-17T13:39:14Z
## Message ID: 20250117-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-01-17T13:34Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 08, 2025 - January 14, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-15T19:16:38Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-08T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-01-14T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250115-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during this reporting period with 1 M-class flare and 7 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-08T01:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T05:10Z and Psyche at 2025-01-16T04:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250108-AL-002).
2025-01-08T05:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T08:41Z (see notification 20250108-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4.00 for the reporting period.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu at the beginning of the reporting period and subsided to near background levels by 2025-01-09 (see notifications 20250105-AL-002, 20250105-AL-003, and 20250107-AL-004). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream detected at DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-01-04 during the previous reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were all at background levels for the entire reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low to moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-01-09 00:18:00 00:33:00 00:26:00 M1.1 N15W09 ( 13947 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-08T01:36Z ~650 C 112/-10 13 SOHO
2025-01-08T05:36Z ~648 C 121/-12 16 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-11T09:09Z ~931 C 78/62 21 STEREO A, SOHO
2025-01-11T23:00Z ~504 C NONE(POS)/-20 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-13T05:24Z ~627 C 83/34 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-14T02:24Z ~817 C 95/28 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-14T09:12Z ~731 C 95/32 16 SOHO, STEREO A
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-15T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-01-21T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently five numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Regions 13959 (N18E38) and 13961 (S09E61) have been the source of recent C-class flaring and may continue to produce flares throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole structure, currently spanning longitudes W30 to E30, started crossing the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk on 2025-01-13 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from SDO AIA). This coronal hole structure may be geoeffective throughout the outlook period. Additionally, the energetic electron flux levels at GOES may be elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the influence of a high speed stream associated with this observed coronal hole structure.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for January 01, 2025 - January 07, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T22:35:01Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-01T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-01-07T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250108-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity was at high levels during this reporting period with 3 X-class flares, 20 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 6 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-04T15:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-07T05:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001)
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-01-07T04:00Z.
2025-01-04T18:48Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-01-07T05:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250104-AL-010, 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001)
The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 around 2025-01-07T04:00Z.
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-01-02T15:12Z STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250103-AL-001).
2025-01-02T15:24Z STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250103-AL-001).
2025-01-02T19:21Z STEREO A at 2025-01-05T02:39Z, Juice at 2025-01-04T03:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-05T16:00Z (glancing blow), and Mars at 2025-01-07T07:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250103-AL-001).
2025-01-04T05:48Z Psyche at 2025-01-12T04:00Z (minor impact), BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T09:10Z, and Juice at 2025-01-06T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250104-AL-009).
2025-01-04T15:12Z Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (glancing blow), and Psyche at 2025-01-11T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001).
2025-01-04T18:48Z Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (glancing blow), and Psyche at 2025-01-11T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250104-AL-010, 20250104-AL-016, 20250106-AL-001).
2025-01-06T05:48Z Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-08T16:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20250107-AL-003).
2025-01-07T23:12Z Psyche at 2025-01-14T13:06Z, BepiColombo at 2025-01-08T17:19Z, Juice at 2025-01-09T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250108-AL-001).
Geomagnetic activity was at severe levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 8.00 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 8.00 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-01-01T15:00Z-18:00Z. This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE around 2024-12-31T15:44Z (see notification 20241231-AL-001). This interplanetary shock and subsequent arrival signature are associated with the arrival of one or more of the C-type CMEs first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2024-12-29T01:23Z and 2024-12-29T06:24Z. Additionally, simulations indicated that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma was close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 2025-01-01T05:45Z (see notifications 20250101-AL-001 and 20250101-AL-004).
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-01-05T19:50Z (see notifications 20250105-AL-002, 20250105-AL-003, 20250107-AL-004). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected at L1 by ACE and DSCOVR on 2025-01-04, which reached a maximum sustained speed of approximately 650 km/s. The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period on 2025-01-07, surpassing the threshold of 1000 pfu each day.
A solar energetic particle event was detected by SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A during the reporting period. At SOHO, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-05T01:03Z (see notification 20250105-AL-001). At GOES, the integral flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeded 10 pfu starting at 2025-01-04T22:15Z (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013). At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-04T22:23Z (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015). This SEP event was possibly associated with the combined effects of the C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-01-04T15:12Z and associated C9.3 flare from Active Region 13939 as well as the O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 2025-01-04T18:48Z and associated C7.6 flare from Active Region 13939. The integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons at GOES and the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO subsided below their thresholds on 2025-01-05 and continued to decline towards background levels through the remainder of the reporting period. At STEREO A, the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons subsided below its threshold of 10^(-1) pfu/MeV on 2025-01-06.
An additional solar energetic particle event was detected at STEREO A. The flux of the 13-100 MeV protons briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-07T00:42Z (see notifications 20250107-AL-001, 20250107-AL-002). This solar energetic particle event is associated with an observed interplanetary shock detected by IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments at STEREO A at 2025-01-07T00:46Z. Analysis of this interplanetary shock is ongoing. The energetic electron flux levels at STEREO A quickly subsided towards background levels early on 2025-01-07 and remained there through the end of the reporting period.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the solar energetic particle events and elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-04T15:12Z ~892 C 56/-10 33 SOHO
2025-01-04T18:48Z ~1590 O 58/-18 36 SOHO
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-01-01T02:48Z ~611 C 82/26 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-02T15:12Z ~637 C 30/-3 10 SOHO
2025-01-02T15:24Z ~750 C 30/-14 15 SOHO
2025-01-03T15:36Z ~584 C -26/-23 10 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-04T05:48Z ~681 C 116/15 40 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-01-06T05:48Z ~1184 O -20/12 10 SOHO
2025-01-07T23:12Z ~1219 O 99/-12 31 SOHO
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-01-08T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-01-14T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered active regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 13947 (N12W08) was the source of numerous flares during the reporting period, including three X-class flares, and may continue to exhibit similar flaring activity during the outlook period. Active Region 13939 rotated off the Earth-facing disk on 2025-01-07 and was responsible for a partially-occulted long-duration M1.1 flare at the end of the reporting period. This region may continue to exhibit notable flaring and may be the source of far-sided activity during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between below minor and minor levels during the outlook period. A coronal hole currently centered around N00W60 (as seen in the available EUV imagery from GOES SUVI) may become geoeffective early in the outlook period, on or around 2025-01-08. Additionally, the > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt was elevated above the threshold of 1000 pfu on 2025-01-08 and may continue to be elevated through the beginning part of the outlook period.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T17:38:57Z
## Message ID: 20250108-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-08T05:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~648 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 121/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-08T05:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo. The leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T08:41Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-08T05:36:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T14:50:16Z
## Message ID: 20250108-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-08T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~650 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 112/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-08T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche (glancing blow) and BepiColombo. The flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2025-01-16T04:00Z and the leading edge of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-09T05:10Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-08T01:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_062900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, BepiColombo, Juice)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-08T03:11:28Z
## Message ID: 20250108-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-07T23:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~1219 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 99/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-07T23:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Psyche, BepiColombo, and Juice (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-01-14T13:06Z and BepiColombo at 2025-01-08T17:19Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juice at 2025-01-09T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-07T23:12:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250108_020300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-07T23:12:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.1 flare from Active Region 13939 (S17W99) which peaked at 2025-01-07T23:05Z with ID 2025-01-07T22:35:00-FLR-001.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T20:51:50Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, most recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2025-01-07T12:10Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2025-01-05T19:50Z are likely caused by high speed stream which arrived on 2025-01-04 reaching sustained maximum speeds of approximately 650 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 500 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T13:28:17Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
O-type CME detected by SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-01-06T05:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1184 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -20/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-06T05:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Solar Orbiter (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-01-08T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-01-06T05:48:00-CME-001):
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T01:52:11Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-07T00:42Z.
NASA spacecraft near STEREO A can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-01-07T00:42:00-SEP-001.
## Notes:
This SEP event (2025-01-07T00:42:00-SEP-001) may be associated with the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-01-07T00:46:00-IPS-001, which itself is still ongoing and under analysis.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - SEP
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-07T00:51:08Z
## Message ID: 20250107-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2025-01-07T00:42Z.
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Psyche, Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo, Lucy, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-01-06T01:09:44Z
## Message ID: 20250106-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001 and 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250104-AL-016). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Psyche (glancing blow). The combined flank of the CMEs will reach Psyche at 2025-01-11T12:00Z.
Previous simulations also estimate that the CMEs may affect Juice, STEREO A, BepiColombo (glancing blow), Lucy (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Juice at 2025-01-05T15:29Z and STEREO A at 2025-01-06T09:18Z. The combined flank of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-01-05T17:00Z, Lucy at 2025-01-07T10:00Z and Mars at 2025-01-08T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-01-07T05:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
CME parameters are (C-type):
1: Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T15:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~892 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 56/-10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-01-04T18:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~1590 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 58/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001, 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001):
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250104_190500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
## Notes:
This CME event (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C9.3 flare from Active Region 3947 (S17W55) with ID 2025-01-04T14:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T15:08Z.
This CME event (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C7.6 flare from Active Region 3947 (S17W57) with ID 2025-01-04T18:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-01-04T19:15Z, SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-04T21:46:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250104-AL-011), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2025-01-04T22:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-012, 20250104-AL-013), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2025-01-04T22:23:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20250104-AL-014, 20250104-AL-015), SEP at SOHO with ID 2025-01-05T01:03:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20250105-AL-001), and SEP at MODEL with ID 2025-01-05T02:35:00-SEP-001.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
