Message Type: Report
Message ID: 20250521-7D-001
Issue Time: 2025-05-21T15:08Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for May 14, 2025 - May 20, 2025
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-05-21T15:08:02Z
## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-05-14T00:00Z
## Report Coverage End Date: 2025-05-20T23:59Z
## Message ID: 20250521-7D-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
Solar activity reached high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 6 M-class flares, 6 O-type CMEs, and 14 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the following locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
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2025-05-14T02:00Z Mars at 2025-05-17T20:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-15T04:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-05-18T20:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-05-19T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250514-AL-008).
2025-05-14T03:48Z Mars at 2025-05-17T20:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-15T04:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-05-18T20:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-05-19T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250514-AL-008).
2025-05-14T06:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-05-15T03:43Z, Juice at 2025-05-17T03:21Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-05-16T04:43Z (see notification 20250514-AL-007).
2025-05-14T07:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-05-15T03:43Z, Juice at 2025-05-17T03:21Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-05-16T04:43Z (see notification 20250514-AL-007).
2025-05-14T08:00Z Mars at 2025-05-17T20:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-15T04:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-05-18T20:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-05-19T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250514-AL-008).
2025-05-14T08:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-15T08:51Z, Mars at 2025-05-17T20:00Z (see notification 20250514-AL-009).
2025-05-14T11:48Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-15T08:51Z, Mars at 2025-05-17T20:00Z (see notification 20250514-AL-009).
2025-05-14T15:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-05-15T05:45Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2025-05-16T07:04Z, Juice at 2025-05-17T08:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2025-05-16T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250515-AL-001).
2025-05-14T18:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-16T00:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-05-19T03:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-05-20T18:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-05-20T20:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250515-AL-002).
2025-05-15T16:12Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-17T08:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250516-AL-001).
2025-05-15T20:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-17T11:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-05-20T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250516-AL-002).
2025-05-16T04:17Z Mars at 2025-05-20T18:00Z (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-17T16:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-05-21T19:00Z (minor impact), Lucy at 2025-05-22T19:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250516-AL-003).
2025-05-20T10:36Z Mars at 2025-05-25T08:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-05-26T08:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-05-27T10:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250520-AL-002).
2025-05-20T14:48Z BepiColombo at 2025-05-21T00:00Z (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe at 2025-05-22T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250520-AL-003).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <= 6.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.33 occurred during the synoptic period of 2025-05-17T00:00Z-03:00Z (see notifications 20250517-AL-001 and 20250517-AL-002). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-05-16T20:10Z which was likely associated with the arrival of the S-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-05-12T23:48Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-05-18T13:30Z (see notifications 20250518-AL-001, 20250518-AL-002, and 20250520-AL-001). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was likely associated with the arrival of the S-type CME mentioned above with additional influences from the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-05-17. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated throughout the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES and the 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were elevated above background levels at the beginning of the reporting period, but remained below their respective thresholds. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO briefly exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV at 2025-05-13T18:14Z during the previous reporting period, decreased below threshold on 2025-05-13, and remained elevated until 2025-05-15. These enhancements were associated with the X1.2 flare peaking at 2025-05-13T15:38Z from Active Region 14086 and subsequent C-type CME first seen in GOES CCOR-1 at 2025-05-13T16:15Z from the previous reporting period. The energetic proton fluxes at GOES and STEREO A decreased to near background levels on 2025-05-14.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earths outer radiation belt described above.
##Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-05-14 03:05:00 03:35:00 03:25:00 M5.3 N16E65 ( 14087 )
2025-05-14 07:36:00 07:51:00 07:45:00 M1.2 N17E88 ( 14087 )
2025-05-14 08:04:00 08:31:00 08:25:00 X2.7 N16E64 ( 14087 )
2025-05-14 11:04:00 11:31:00 11:19:00 M7.7 N16E62 ( 14087 )
2025-05-14 17:59:00 18:18:00 18:11:00 M4.7 N18E60 ( 14087 )
2025-05-15 17:08:00 17:27:00 17:21:00 M2.1 N17E47 ( 14087 )
2025-05-19 08:13:00 08:26:00 08:21:00 M3.2 N25E90 ( 14094 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
NONE
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-05-14T02:00Z ~1224 O -85/30 12 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T03:48Z ~961 C -70/28 29 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T07:12Z ~678 C 110/46 47 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T08:00Z ~1755 O -87/31 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T08:48Z ~1036 O -66/32 40 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T11:48Z ~670 C -62/30 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T15:24Z ~1015 O 121/-8 27 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-14T18:36Z ~582 C -60/37 41 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-15T02:24Z ~1015 O -177/-61 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-15T03:48Z ~953 C -75/-50 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-15T16:12Z ~840 C -48/29 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-15T20:24Z ~818 C -45/29 17 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-16T04:17Z ~617 C -95/20 23 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-18T19:00Z ~954 C 0/51 19 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-05-19T11:24Z ~519 C NONE(POS)/41 33 SOHO, GOES
2025-05-19T12:12Z ~696 C -80/37 13 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-20T10:36Z ~784 C -80/16 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-20T14:48Z ~579 C 118/7 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-05-20T20:00Z ~1043 O -55/-51 14 SOHO, GOES
2025-05-20T21:12Z ~534 C NONE(POS)/6 11 SOHO, GOES
## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-05-21T00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-05-27T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between low and moderate levels during the outlook period. There are currently seven numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14087 (N16W24) produced most of the M-class flares and an X-class flare during the reporting period and may continue to produce flaring activity during the outlook period. A newly numbered Active Region 14094 (N21E64) produced one M-class flare during the reporting period and may continue to produce flaring activity as it rotates further onto the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during the outlook period. The energetic electron flux levels at GOES may remain elevated above background levels during the outlook period due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-05-17.
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
Message Type: CME
Message ID: 20250520-AL-002
Issue Time: 2025-05-20T16:21Z
Message Body: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Europa Clipper, Mars)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-05-20T16:21:55Z
## Message ID: 20250520-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-05-20T10:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~784 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -80/16 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-05-20T10:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2025-05-27T10:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-05-26T08:00Z, and Mars at 2025-05-25T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-05-20T10:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250520_143700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
URL: View Details
GIFs:
